Crypto continues to ride itโs 50 and 200 ema down as resistance, in todayโs show, Kyledoops shares where itโs headed to next and what you can do to reduce your risk.
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๐ https://www.lbank.com/activity/kyledoops-Cashback1?icode=4S4WV
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โฑ ๐ง๐ถ๐บ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฎ๐บ๐ฝ๐:
00:00 Short Squeeze Imminent? – Crypto Market Update
02:30 Crypto News Today – QT, FOMC, Daily Exchange Volume, Global Liquidity, M2 Money Supply
04:45 Stock Market Update – S&P 500, QQQ, Dow Jones, NVIDIA, MSTR, Coinbase, DXY
10:15 USDT Dominance Analysis – UDST.D
11:10 Is The Bull Market Over? – Bitcoin Analysis
19:50 Is a Multi Year Bear Market Possible? – Weekly RSI, Funding Rate
26:46 Ethereum Analysis – Record ETH Shorts, Short Squeeze
28:29 HYPE Analysis
๐ฌ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ผ๐ ๐๐ถ๐๐ต ๐๐๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ฝ๐: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLmOv2_vzOoGcDGeu-HHfifExgbvmPLO3l
๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐: Bitcoin – Crypto – Bitcoin Price – Trading Bitcoin – Altcoins – Trading Altcoins – Crypto Trading – Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Trading Ethereum – Bitcoin Price Analysis – Trading ETH/BTC – Crypto Market Update – Crypto News
All right so crypto remains at the mercy Of the stock market for yet another week And you can see uh the performance is Not looking too good right Bitcoin Crypto all down yet again if we go to The stock market and we look at the Weekly there is some serious serious Pullbacks which are currently taking Place uh but in Today Show we're going To have a look at what could happen in Terms of a shortterm short squeeze there May be the opportunity for that but I'll Show you where you can only get Long-term optimistic there's still a lot Lot to look forward to within the Markets um and a lot of things that need To happen it's a major economic impact Week that we're going to be looking at And the volumes are very very very low If you look over here you can see Specifically focusing on uh the open Interest which has dropped off quite Significantly there's your open interest Ever since those highs it's just pretty Much cliff diving there's to give you Some additional perspective so rolling Over open interest dropping Significantly showing that there's a Lack of Market participants coming into The market and our for our liquidation Levels have been in the region of about 200 to 250 million which relatively Speaking considering the size of the Crypto markets at the moment is a very
Very small number that's a tiny tiny Number um and if you look over the last Hour uh we have some Longs getting Liquidated I do want to talk about What's currently going on on the short Term so we'll get to that there is the Potential for an actual short trade Which you could be taking there um with Pretty low risk so we'll get into that As well you can see the 7-Day exchange Volume continues to put in a series of Lower lows and lower highs right and This is a major week big big big week so Smash the like button hit the Bell Notification And subscribe to the Channel if you're not already subscribed Because you definitely don't want to Miss any of the shows this week Specifically uh looking at the US fomc Uh statement which is going to be coming Out and the federal fund rate decision This is going to be um something that All eyes within crypto natives are going To be looking at Major major major event And this could spark the next move right Not only for crypto but for the stock Market as well when um things start to Break the FED usually have to intervene And it is starting to look like for the First time uh as stubborn as the market Has been grinding onwards and upwards While the FED have remained headstrong For the first time we're now starting to Actually see things break and if you
Look over here um in terms of poly Market vote will the FED n QT before May And un believably the votes are sitting At a 100% chance so I put a tweet on This over here poly Market's pricing in 100% chance that the FED ends QT before May ifp even Whispers that Q QE may be Ending uh or QT may be ending and QE Maybe coming at the next fomc meeting Well ultimately that can lead to the Next big move especially especially Especially when you're focusing on the Uh volumes which are very very low right Declining 7-Day exchange volume coming All the way back down uh to those Previous levels if we look at it you Know over the uh last let's just quickly Reset this if we look at this over all Of time well you can see this is a Pretty serious base over here that you Want to hold probably around that 50 Billion dollar Mark so a lot of work to Be done there if you do want to keep the Bull market hopes alive if we do focus On the global liquidity uh the high time Frame cycle suggests that you know it's Still in that bullish phase right still Pushing towards upside but we need to See a spillover between the M2 money Supply and the global liquidity where There's an abundance of capital and then That tends to rotate into the highest Risk asset and that's only when your Altcoins will run right we haven't seen
That yet and you probably only get there When you properly in QE which we still Theoretically in quantitative tightening Where the FED are still tightening right So the stock market is one of the most Important things to be looking at this Has been one of the quickest fast Corrections that we've ever seen in Terms of the um S&P 500 and the rest of The stock markets trading days taken to Move 10% down in terms of a correction Uh well these have been the historical Ones 12 days 14 20 15 96 and this time 16 days right 16 days and if we look Forward to what happened 1 month 3 Months 6 months and 12 months later for The most part prices were up right if You look on average um you were up 2.8% after one month you're up 7.5% Three months later on the stock market And then you're up 14.7% 6 months later and 13.7% 12 months later so longer term you Know there is still a possibility for a Bounce short term there is also an Opportunity for a short squeeze on the Stock market but I'll show you the Levels that you need to be paying Attention to and part of the reason why Is throughout this rally over here um You can look at the standard deviations Away from the mean so you use some like A moving average often times people Focus on the 200 day moving average as
Your mean right and then you look for The mean reversion play so depending on How many standard deviations away you Are the higher the chances are um that You bounce right so one standard Deviation away might elicit a small Bounce 1.5 you have a bigger chance that You're going to get that mean reversion And then three standard deviations away Which is what we currently experiencing Should show that in the short term There's a very high probability that you Put in at least a little bit of a bounce Right now this is what you need to be Focusing on because there is still Bearish Divergence right the bearish Divergence is beginning to play out you Can see price was Rising on the high Time frame the weekly time frame for the Stock market the RSI was declining over There and when you do see something like This and you have a major extension away From the high time frame mean in this Instance the 200 we moving average then You should be looking for a move back Down to fair value now remember the 200 We moving average is constantly Rising So it depends when you get to that level If it happens later on this year well That could still mean that price find Support over here on the strong Horizontal which is kind of my main Target right now for the S&P 500 that's Coming in around 5,200 which you can
Still see means lower so going back to This three standard deviations away from The shortterm mean the 200 day moving Average um don't confuse the time frames 200 day moving average versus this the 200 we moving average so shortterm your Three standard deviations away could Lead to that little bounce as I've drawn In over there you're going to be looking At your 0.382 and your 0.5 FIB level Taken from the high to the current low That's a bounce into 5,700 to 5,800 Watch for a little bit of resistance Coming into that area if it leads into The lower high then you could continue To roll over and that's where you start To look for uh the 200 we moving average To continue on up and possibly meet that Level now again short term yes short Squeezes are possible but High time Frame they are some major warning signs Again now looking at the really high Time frames like the monthly um for the S&P 500 that's your stock market Remember you put in as well those Bearish divergences with all ma major Momentum isolators back in 2021 and we Identified many many times the Similarities that we're seeing currently With the current stock market versus 20 21 which is where that top was put in Right so even when you get that Short-term bounce unless you can start To break and hold above this and confirm
A massive uh bear trap right a big ShakeOut over here and you can get price Back above these breakdown levels which Means you need to get way higher you Need to get above 6,000 on the stock Market if you can't do that you have to Look and default to the monthly and take It seriously that you're getting these Bearish crossovers over here with Bearish Divergence with all major moving Averages and momentum on lers and that Means you'll be looking for lower prices Right so Mondays which was today of Course has typically been beish right It's been bearish for the last couple of Mondays within the stock market um People seem to not like Mondays but Happy St Patrick's Day because today is St Patrick's Day and if we do want to Pull out the data for St Patrick's Day It has actually being green very very Often right sticking with the theme of St Patrick's Day so any time we tell We'll see how prices open up today but Again if you do get that bounce please Do watch for the uh at least the Resistance we have had a high time frame Weekly Market structure break and the Last time that we saw that was in 2021 and that led to I think 190 day Correction there will be es and flows uh Lower highs and lower lows which means You still get big bounces along the way Um which could at least bod well for
Shortterm uh moves within the crypto Market so we'll talk about the crypto Market in just a moment but there it is He your stock market um you know major Breaks of structure across the board on Nastic on Dow Jones Invidia also putting In a big move over here trying to get Back above the 200 day moving average Mic strategy also putting in a really Nice move over here but still the chart Doesn't look good over here lower lows And lower highs coinbase still Struggling underneath that key level That we had been focusing on this was The UPS sloping trend line um key Horizontals you had your CME Gap you've Broken below that also when it comes to Bitcoin a lot of people focused on that CME gap which means I think plenty Traders took the long trade looking for A little bit of a bounce which means There's a lot of uh stop losses below That level Dxy also still hovering around that Mid-range over here it hasn't put in um Any substantial bounce yet so I'll be Keeping an eye out on this for bounce Into the underside resistance which Should also lead to the 0.382 so that Upward move in the dxy will typically Create the next leg down for Bitcoin Because for the most part when the dxy Is rising Bitcoin is dropping when the Dxy is dropping usually you see Bitcoin
Performing um at least decently right Okay uh usdt dominance another very very Important one to look at um still Suggesting over here higher lows and Higher highs and looking for an ultimate Target all the way up um into this High Region over here so let's just quickly Put that on screen still looking looking For a move up over here that would be The ultimate low for me on bitcoin if it Gets into this region I'm expecting a Major drop and reaction from the usdt Dominance right so still keeping all Eyes on that uh Bitcoin dominance same Thing still rising at minimum I'm Expecting a move up to about 62.6 n% of Course depending on what the FED do and Say on Wednesday that will drastically Change and affect most of these charts Right so make sure that you have each And every single day Bitcoin let's have A look at Bitcoin Bitcoin still holding The 50 moving average um on the weekly Time frame which has been significant Throughout this bull run so we'll see We'll see if they can get a move up from Here again you really only enter into a Zone of safety if you can start to take Out the area where we exited right $992,000 that is the key area that you Need to break back above which is your Breakdown level um otherwise you have to Look at it as shortterm bounces now if You can get a sustainable move off of
This 50 moving average like we have seen Throughout the price Cycles as well as Within this bull market that we've been In well um that could keep the hopes Alive right because on your Rainbow Chart which is a logarithmic chart that Shows um undervalue fair value and Overvalued for the Bitcoin price well um You can see over here despite the fact That we had $110,000 Bitcoin hadn't even Made it out of the um undervalued Zone The Still cheap zone right so you're Still stuck within that if we if we Break down if we lose $70,000 on bitcoin And um you know the the stock market Moves into a bearish trend for around 100 to 200 days like we saw in the price Cycle unfortunately it's unrealistic to Expect that crypto would succeed and That would make it that would make this Quite literally the worst crypto cycle Gains wise that we've ever ever seen Right so please do watch that now this Is the most important chart to me I'm I Continue to drive this chart into the Shows and remind you of its significance And importance it's been the parallel Channel with the lower boundary that's Held price up uh that would be the main Area of interest if price came into There I would be a buyer looking in the Short term at least for a little bit of A bounce then you have your upper trend Line over here and then you have your
Midline which is more fair value in the Short term but the significance of this Chart is Right this is why it's so important to Get above this $992,000 level this was Your range low which was governing price Towards the upside you needed to see Price hold that you broke below you also Simultaneously broke that midline level So we can quickly um uh just draw that Into the chart just give me a second Over there so we're looking at this Level over here very significant we're Looking at the mid level over here of The parallel Channel very significant so There's an intersection there that inter Intersection was lost right that Intersection lines up with all those key Moving averages the three the 9 and the 30 so the the yellow the green and the Purple right now you have the yellow Below the green below the purple purple Still Rising but it will start to roll Over and if it does you have a 100% Short trade activated as it currently Stands this suggests 100% cash position 100% cash position according to my Trading system which is exactly what I'm In is 100% cash if that purple moving Average begins to roll over with price Failing to get back Above This 92k level That becomes a 100% swing short trade With leverage right you have to open up A short trade with leverage um or unless
You want to use options now um I would Expect at some point there is going to Be a short squeeze into this region and That's going to be the million dooll Question for you guys is you know um if You haven't exited your positions do you Exit over there that's going to be a Major lower high because that push into The zone and rejection is likely where You start to see this moving average all Over now it will take time if you look At the um at least this moving average You know this could only happen sometime Around May so it's going to take time to Try and get back above this region but The major concern to me so going back to The point is the firstly the Intersection has been lost up sloping Midline um you lost the key horizontal But what's more important to me is the Time the time spend there this is now a 5day chart so it's got you got here 5 10 15 20 days 20 days spent underneath that Key horizontal 20 days spent underneath The diagonal and now we're looking at Our 25th day right this is the 25th Candle over here um on a daily time Frame spending a lot of time underneath That level which is uh not a good sign And that suggests at minimum at minimum At some point we should be dropping down To this level you can feel free to vote There is a section over there which you Can vote um I'd love to know your
Thoughts let's click over here you know The question is when does that happen Right will BTC make new lows this week Yes 72,000 is coming 60% of you said yes No it will hold $80,000 40% of you Believe it will hold um so could it hold Could Bulls be stubborn enough and um Continue to maintain that position I Think it is definitely definitely Possible so it's not a question of if For me it's more a question of when Right at least according to this chart Easily easily you can change my mind if You if you can see Bulls push price up Over here and hold it like this I I'll Flip bullish again if that happens I'll Flip bullish right now that is not the Case right now I have to maintain a Bearish bias um despite the short-term Price action stuck below the high volume Profiles the points of control $96,000 From this overall trading range volume Continues to decline so again don't Mistaken a short squeeze right a short Squeeze is entirely possible as I Mentioned over here we are coming off Very very very low volume right you can See it over here in the liquidation heat Map right um there hasn't been too many Liquidations over the last couple of Weeks and months not only that but you Can see the volume declining over here Right low volume makes for easy move Think of it as an liquid meme coin
Something that's trading at a market cap Of let's say like four5 million you know Whole bunch of players decide to come in And Market buy what happens to that coin It goes very quickly from $5 million up To $15 million doing 3x in a matter of Minutes we we've seen this with many Many many meme coins we had a lot of Experience with that it's no different On the global scale when it comes to Something like Bitcoin and crypto right Which now has institutional interests um As well as nation state interests which Means if they do decide to come in and Make create Market buys it will create a Godlike candle in this low volume Environment then your question is can it Hold above these high volume areas and If the answer is yes it can maintain Above these key zones that we're looking At then we can jump back in and get long Until then um it's definitely advisable To remain highly highly cautious and Protect Capital that's capital Preservation is the name of the game Right now you want to be very very very Careful with your Capital um and not Waste money not lose money right uh the Most money is made in easy on mode right When it's easy mode where everything is Going up where there's high volume High Liquidity that's where you make easy Money quick money trying to play The Chop over here is what gets you
Absolutely killed right now short-term Traders who are skilled to do that Absolutely we do do short-term trades in Well room as well the the private Discord of course um so if you do want To jump in and join there of course You're welcome to H but for the swing Traders you're probably best remaining Cautious Capital preservation is the Name of the game so down sloping trend Line of course you need to break that if You can break this down sloping trend Line and get price action back up so if You get that Godlike candle some big Move up over here and you can break back Into the trading range and break that Downs sloping trend line that's where You can start to gain interest there's No need to fomo in if you do see Something like that there will be Pullbacks along the way and you'll Probably get the next high low so then You're looking for something like that Right right now um price is holding Below all these key moving averages uh And again also if you do get Continuation towards the downside the Next thing then we need to be careful of Is that we don't get a cross between the Light blue and the dark blue which is Your 200 um your 200 EMA versus your 200 Ma if the 200 EMA crosses below the 200 Ma um that sometimes can signal a bit of A death sentence right if we go look
Previously let's just let that load up There we go we can have a look Previously at what happened that would Look like this environment a sh sharp Drop down 200 EMA crosses below 200 Ma You will get a big relief rally that Took price essentially from 33k all the Way up 46% that's the type of relief Rallies you can expect 40 50% for Bitcoin 2 300% for some altcoins big Moves um but into resistance and then Obviously you go down right now of Course I'm really really hoping that We're not going to get a multi-e bare Mark and we also spoke about the bullish Case right um one of the bullish cases That we're looking at is around that RSI Right we're keeping all eyes on this RSI On the weekly time frame which is in the Gray box below down into this 44 region It seems to be holding there as support And as long as it can continue to do That um there is some hope that remains Alive but I want to remind you that it Took time right the prior times um you Can see over there there was seven bars Right seven weeks over there the next Time over here you look at nine weeks Right nine weeks of the RSI hovering Around that low region creating a Reaccumulation range so we should be Able to flip our bias if you can see This 83 80k region continues to hold a Support um and you form in trading range
It will start to look like Reaccumulation but it's a bit too soon Right it's a bit too soon if we do do That right if we form a reaccumulation Range and we spend time there with that Weekly RSI maintaining 44 what I would Expect to see is the um the funding rate Go negative right this becomes a good Sign backwardation is another word that We use for this markets typically Operate in what's called contango where The Futures price for each contract so We're in March now so may should be more Bullish than March um and then uh April Sorry April should be more bullish in March May should be more bullish in April and um June should be more bullish Than May backwardation is when the Futures contracts are more more Pessimistic consecutively over time so Each consecutive months uh month becomes More and more pessimistic and we can see This in the Futures price action uh Chart remember some people trade Futures Contracts not not um you know perpetuals Uh with no expiry date like we trade There's traders that trade Futures Contracts for each respective month and That Futures Contract tells us in in the Form of the funding when it goes Negative whether we're in bation or cont Tango if we start to enter into strong Backwardation and we're maintaining a Range low level and we're not breaking
Down that becomes a Buy Signal but again We're not there yet right we're not There yet so got a little bit of of um At least negative funding over here but I would like to see a little bit more of It if we do drop this down onto um let's Actually go as low as like the five Minute time frame to see exactly what's Going on over here and let's throw on The um open interest so uh you can see Over here let's have a look there we go Right now uh there are Longs that are Attempting to build over here right so You do have some Longs that are trying To build and this is what tells me that You know based of this move over here It's probably better to be looking for The short trade versus the long trck When you focus on the price action over Here you have a little bit of a swing Failure pattern you can see this candle Tempted to push up nice big move over There and failed theoretically that is Fair game to start to look for a short Trade right so if you were building a Short trade of course the closer you can Get to here the tighter you can place Your stop loss but theoretically you Could be taking a trade back down to the Lows that gives you that's a pretty Sizable trade if you get it from the High if price moves up and you can start To take it there that's giving you about An 8 to1 risk reward ratio which is
Phenomenal otherwise you need to if You're taking it from here it's still a Favorable trade but I'd leave a little Bit of room to build the position you're Getting rejected off that 50 emema as Well so to additional evidence over There if we go on the hourly well you Can see as well you're being capped by Both both the 50 and the 200 which Currently have a bearish cross right so Inv validation above that Wick short Trade would look like this 8 5,600 is i' Leave a bit of a a tight stop loss over There entering into the short trade Trying to scale in right leave a bit of Room for yourself if price does Spike up Expect it could do something like that Right you could see price continuing to Grind grind grind you just don't want to See any candles above that Wick that Occurred um at least I'm on plus 4 UTC Time that was at 8:00 so depending where You are you where you were you should Identified on your chart on the hourly That's your invalidation right so Building a short position over here you Know you can see Longs trying to build Into this resistance over here and if They do get taken out in the short term That could create the Cascade back down To the fair value Gap um at about $77,000 now of course you would need to Take some profits along the way right I'd probably take the majority of my
Profit into this region so if you are Going to be taking that trade just below $80,000 79k I'd probably take half Profits and then I'll take full profits Over here at $77,400 so if you do want To take that trade guys by the way there Is a link in the description below this Is the most insane sign up bonus I've Actually ever seen in my life it is Albank over here if you look at albank There's a link in the description below Here is what the signup bonus looks like It's absolutely insane right so firstly If you're depositing anything under $3,000 you can enjoy up to a 50% bonus 50% rebate right um so meaning If you put in $100 or more you're Getting $50 right $100 or more they're Going to give you $50 if you put in $500 They're going to give you $250 for free That you can use to trade with if you Put in $1,000 they're going to give you $500 now what if you're a bigger Trader If you're a whale right if you're a Whale you can get up to 20% rebate Meaning even if you're putting in a $100,000 you will get $220,000 so that you heard that right You put in $100,000 you get $20,000 right which you can use to trade With you can open up a 100x leverage Trade on that if you want with the $20,000 so what are some trade Opportunities right well I've given you
One this would be the the short trade Setup over there again guys if you want That the link is in the description Below over there that is lbank $20,000 Sign up bonus and 100% cash back on Every single trade right so um basically It makes it free to trade there for now Um okay cool also I want to remind you Uh whale room the link is in the Description below if you do want to join There that is the private Discord and Then whale school we are currently Taking signups and if you do sign up to Albank that is also your ticket into wh School right put in your email address Over there click sign up um that is how You get it for free as opposed to paying The $2,000 fee for the course right um All right next the other trade that I Want to talk about is ethereum now I Think that you know things can the Market can remain irrational longer then Traders can remain solvent when they Counter the trend the trend is down Don't get me wrong it's absolutely down Especially on ethereum Lower lows and Lower highs has been the name of the Game but I've spoken about the potential For building that position between 1,000 $2,000 um and you can see that record Amounts of eth shorts are on the in the Market right now right extreme extreme Extreme short positions over there and Again you know what that means there's
Always a chance for a short squeeze Especially when in a low volume low Liquidity market right so um that was One of the trades that we were looking At if we go through to uh eth over here Let's go there so there it is it is Holding that trend line I said it is Very very likely that it's going to come Down into to $1,500 and the way that we building a Position over here is we're using the Trading bots on pinex so um you can see These are the these are the trades that We have at the moment um the currently The Hedge position is in profit for Those of you that do want that there is A link below where you can actually copy Those um Bots there we go so we have the Hedge position and then we have the eth Long position so it's currently scaling Into the long right it's down 1.54% Because of course e is pulling back I Would expect that this would go into a Little bit of a draw down but eventually Um you know those orders should be Fulfilled all the way into this gray box Area if we do get a little bit of a Breakdown so keeping all eyes on that um What else we can have a look you know There's been a lot of excitement around Hype as well we can have a look over Here um this is still a pretty bearish Chart High time frame don't get me wrong But of course it does create the
Possibility that you could get a move All the way up into 18 we've been pretty Explicit about that the only chart Support that we have technical support Has come into this area where price is Holding so I'm sure a lot of Traders are Looking at exactly this you know tight Stop below there you can trade this into The underside resistance right that's a 4 to1 risk to reward R risk to reward Ratio and the move from current price up There is at least 33% so there are Opportunities right there's Opportunities but you need to be an Active Nimble Trad Um you need to be focused constantly on The at least on what's happening within The market you can't take your eyes off The price so all of this has being Dropped in well room right our Traders Are crushing it in there if you do want Help with the short-term trading you Know all of our Traders um are taking These short-term trades and making a lot Of profits along the way the link is in The description below over there um so Again just to summarize uh for today you Know you could easily easily easily a Short squeeze and that's mostly based Off of the mean reversion the three Standard deviations away on the stock Market the mean reversion play but High Time frame there's no doubt that the Stock market has also broken structure
Just like Bitcoin and the most important Chart to me right now is this one as a Swing Trader as a low time frame Trader There are other opportunities for that Jump into wh room but as a swing Trader I will continue to maintain a cash Position waiting for price to collapse Eventually into 72 to 68 $8,000 68 to 72 Or alternatively to reclaim above the $992,000 breakdown level which is Exactly where I exited live on the show I covered that as well as in the whal Room Discord so that's it from me folks Thank you so much for watching I will See all of you on the next one I hope You have an absolutely Stell day and Just [Music] [Applause]