PREPARE FOR THE WORST! โš ๏ธ (Gareth Soloway Confirms Crypto BULL TRAP)

In this special edition of Crypto Banter DeFi, Miles Deutscher asks Gareth Soloway the questions about trading, we all want to know the answers to! Is Gareth bullish or bearish on Bitcoin for 2023? Find out NOW!

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#Bitcoin #Crypto #Altcoins

๐—ง๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐˜€:

00:00 Who is Gareth Soloway
03:30 Money Management & Keys to Investing
05:50 Resources to Learn Trading
08:00 Risk Management & Dollar Cost Average
10:20 Trading Mindset – Using the Trades
11:30 What Gareth Soloway is Trading in 2023
12:29 Bullish or Bearish on BTC for 2023?
14:58 Bitcoin Price Prediction 2023
16:15 Is the Bitcoin Bottom in?
18:35 Crypto Market Forecast 2023 – Recession?
21:05 Is Bitcoin Digital Gold?
21:52 Trading Ethereum and Altcoins in 2023
23:25 Hedge Funds Investing in Bitcoin & Crypto
24:00 What is an Echo Bubble? Bitcoin Bull Trap
27:45 Equity Markets Development in 2023
29:56 Top Assets to Hold in 2023 – Gold & Equities
32:25 Investing in Commodities – Oil Price
35:15 Gareth Soloway’s Thoughts on Aptos APT
36:15 Advice for Crypto Traders in 2023

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGaTzPS6fTY&list=PLmOv2_vzOoGfTIAPcvjt3jN3rlNri-XMi

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Gareth Soloway – Bitcoin – BTC – Altcoin Pump – Crypto Pump – Altcoins to Buy – Buying Altcoins – Trading 2023 – Altcoin Trading – Bitcoin Digital Gold – Crypto – Assets to Hold in 2023 – Crypto Trading – Trading Altcoins – DeFi – Investing in Commodities – Miles Deutscher – Crypto Banter Defi – Crypto Banter – Crypto Banter Live – Crypto Banter Today – Crypto Banter YouTube – Bitcoin Price Prediction 2023 – Bitcoin Bottom – Crypto Market Forecast 2023 – Echo Bubble – Aptos APT – Gareth Soloway Interview


What's up everyone welcome back to the Show I'm your host miles and in this Interview series we interviewed the Smartest Minds in crypto today we have Gareth soloway joining us on the show to Discuss the markets Gareth welcome hey Thanks miles thanks for having me You've been a guest I've wanted to have On the show for quite some time I think Your insight into the market is great Um and you can give some really good Perspective about where we currently sit Uh not only in crypto but also Um inequities as well so today I want to Ask you about Bitcoin where you see us In the cycle Um how you view the view the Relationship between crypto and equities Um what your trading strategy is and Yeah there's a lot to ask so I think we Just we just crack straight into it nice Yeah man I mean I'm here to answer any Questions we can dive into some Psychological stuff as well not only Charts but yeah man I'm excited Awesome so I guess the first thing I Want to ask you is who is Gareth Solway Give us a bit of an insight into how you Got into trading and and and you know What what you what you kind of do on a Daily basis yeah so I got into trading When I was when I was relatively young Um I was a kind of a high schooler so so Just even before going to University and

Everything like that I I grew up in kind Of this lower middle income family where We didn't have any money to invest so I Wasn't exposed to investing right and And lo and behold when I was looking to Getting into a university I was kind of Like okay well what would look good on My resume and and sure enough there was This investment club and it happened to Be in the late 90s when the dot-coms Were going nuts and and I basically had This you know fake account that I was Given and before you know it during The.com bubble which again was very Crypto-esque of 2021 I I turned it into A double and a triple right and to a kid That didn't have a lot of money this was Incredibly addicting it was just like oh My goodness could this be real I mean is This even possible I've got to figure This out so so lo and behold old I went To the university went for economics Afterwards I worked at a company where They it was supposed to be you know Financial planning but it was really me On the on the phones cold calling I Hated it I saved 10 000 bucks I went out And I started trying to learn how to Trade I was horrendous at it just like Everyone out there is when they start I Was losing money I had to work three Night jobs three side jobs to get to Replenish that account and then over the Course of years I slowly started to

Analyze charts started to recognize Patterns that were going over repeating Over and over and started to kind of Understand the mindset of investing and Trading and it led me into kind of this Profitable Groove that I've been in so I've been doing this now for 20 plus Years mostly stocks and commodities Cryptos a little bit newer but the Beauty of it is is that a chart is a Chart if you have a million people Trading in crypto or a million people Trading Tesla stock the charts are going To represent the same things it's buyers And sellers and so you can really trade Anything you want out there when you Learn how to read the charts Yeah I think on that point I I do see Like a bit of division in in kind of the Perception of technical analysis so some People call it astrology Um some people you know are really Really like convinced like the the lines On their charts are a dictating price You know how do you kind of view Technical analysis well so the the Important thing to understand is it's Right down the middle of both those two Views right so so number one it's all Probabilities right so so what I always Say to people is you know any of us who Have been to a casino you know you don't Want to be the Gambler walking in there Where the odds are 50 50 or worse you

Want to be the casino house where when You're analyzing these patterns you Always have to go in understanding it Could fail but the probabilities are Higher that they won't and so it's Really a game of numbers right and That's where it comes into managing your Money managing how much you're putting In each trade you know if you're going To go all in on a trade and that happens To be one of your losers out of every Five well that's gonna screw you up You're gonna blow up your account so It's about money management and Understanding that any pattern can fail You just want to do the do over and over Again let's say 70 success rate that'll Put you in the Hall of Fame and make you A lot of money How would you get into trading if you're A retail because you know it's a tricky Game and you even said yourself you know It took many years for you to to get the Formula right and now you're in a strong Position what do you think the qualities Are that make a good Trader yeah so so I Think the quality is right I mean you Have to be able to be disciplined and I Think that's one of the things that We've seen in the crypto markets in 2021 Where you know if you were chasing Bitcoin at 65 67 69 000 it was really Looking back on it a bad decision and You have to be able to step back and say

Hey listen this has already run I'm not Going to pay up 3x or 5x of where this Was you know a year ago or six months Ago I'm gonna wait patiently either find Another opportunity or wait for this one To come back in and so I think that's Really that that mentality is something That people find a lot of trouble with Because there's so much hype on Twitter On various like social medias that Everyone's telling you it's going up Another 100x right and in reality we Know it's not going to do that I mean Yes you have the amazing things like a Dogecoin but that's kind of the not the Norm right and the real world of Investing it's it's definitely unusual So so you have to have personal Discipline you also have to be able to Pull yourself outside of the market and View the market and the hype that's Going on because it will tell you a lot About which way you should be positioned Like when you see everyone being bullish Everyone crazy bullish start thinking a Little bit more the opposite way and Vice versa when everyone's panicking go Back to logic go back to you know what's The use case for this is it a real use Case is there value here and that'll Give you the right answer more often Than not and then lastly it's charts Right I mean so charts represent human Emotion buyers and sellers and so if you

Just learn like I say study charts 10 Minutes a day in a year you'll blow your Mind at how much you've learned and so Those are really the the keys to Investing Are there any kind of resources that You'd recommend for someone that's Um wanting to start trading or kind of Like a plan that they can use to to get Started of course you said 10 minutes a Day might be a good strategy yeah so 10 Minutes a day because it's not Overwhelming I think if people try to Dive in you know with five hours a day There's no way your brain can absorb it And really as you learn each thing like You know learn topping Tales today Bottoming Tales tomorrow engulfing Candles the next day you know it's these Are relatively simple you know the Definitions of what these candles are is Simple to follow it's just if you try to Learn all of it at once it's going to be Overwhelming so I mean in general pick Up a regular based ta book like you know They have just standard technical Analysis books that teach you the basics And then you need to kind of follow Someone that that knows what they're Doing someone that has a proven track Record of knowing how to do the Technicals learn from them you know Learn from people like that and and it Will come together it takes time though

And I want to unders I want people to Understand this is that there's there's No like magic formula if you want to be A brain surgeon you can't just watch a Video and be like okay let me go operate On this dude's brain right you have to Practice it and that's what people don't Understand but if you do practice it There is light at the end of the tunnel And a lot of money as well Yeah and maybe even learning on an Account that's um you know not not Funded or using um artificial money is a Good way to to do things because I see a Lot of people jump into the markets and And start with huge amounts and then end Up you know wrecking themselves and that Learning process is super important Um yeah I was just going to say in fact You know one of the best things for me Is that I didn't have a lot of money When I started because I would have Blown up if it was a million dollars I Would have blown that up you know it It's all relative right so so for me it Was good that I had only a little bit And I agree with you like a demo account Is really good what a demo account will Allow you to do is practice the setups The technical setups over and over again Which then you gain confidence on and Then you can trust it with real money The only thing that demo accounts don't Allow for is your emotion right when

It's fake money you don't have that Emotional pull so that's the one caveat Once you go live you're gonna have that Real money on the line and that can be a Little scary Yeah and then it's all about risk Management so how do you um determine How much you know what percentages you Put into each trade and and how you um Manage overall portfolio uh allocation To individual trades yeah so so for me It's it's very structured meaning that Before I get in any one trade it doesn't Matter if it's Apple Tesla or Bitcoin It's always ahead of time I make a plan And I say okay I'm going to invest x Amount of money as a full position so Going in already I know what my Max Exposure is going to be and then what I Like to do is I like to kind of inch Into a trade meaning that I'm not Putting my whole amount in at one spot Hoping that that technical level is Going to hold because a lot of times in Fear and panic it won't it won't hold It'll go below that so what I'll do is Then I'll divide it up into fourths Right so maybe 25 of that money goes in The first level if it dips a little bit Lower 25 25 and what you'll notice is That if assuming you're finding a good Technical range you know your your first Entry may not be right maybe not your Second but one of your next ones you

You're going to get that bounce and Ultimately again that gives you the best Dollar cost average so I'm big on dollar Cost averaging into trades I think again It it takes a lot of emotion right if if You're investing a hundred thousand but Let's just say you're throwing ten Thousand in it initially you're not Going to be as emotionally attached to That 10K as if it was 100K which Continues to allow you to think much Clearer more clearly versus emotionally Okay nice and I was going to ask what Um is your personal trading style so we See many different styles in the market We see some people more on the swing Trading side some people are like day Traders scalp Traders um how do you Identify as a Trader yeah so I'm a cross Between a swing Trader and a day trader I I'm kind of the I I just can't hold Things long term so there's so many People out there that say oh you know I Just hold for the long term I I have a Hard time doing that because you know When Bitcoin was at 65 or 69 000 when The charts are telling you it's going to Drop to 20 it's very hard to be like Well yeah but this is a long-term Position so I'll just watch my money go Down by 80 or 70 and then re-buy right So so or just kind of sit with it so so For me I love the day trading world I Love the the intensity of it the fact

That you can go in and make you know Thousands of dollars on a daily basis And be in and be out of Trades very very Quickly and I think overall again the Mindset is is one of you're using the Trade right so someone many people fall In love with things like you know Ripple Or Bitcoin or or any of these things and Stocks are the same way and I always say To people don't fall in love with an Asset it's not going to love you back Only love things that will love you back Because it's not going to be like oh Well Tommy or whatever really loves me So I'm not going to dump out on him use It to make money for yourself and your Family and then be fine with getting rid Of it at the right time and moving on to The next trade so you don't hold any Like stocks or crypto necessarily too Long term yeah so I finally you know When we were down around 17 000 I Finally tucked a little bit of Bitcoin Away just a very small amount where I'm I'm trying not to look at it for the Longer term but aside from that I hold Some physical gold Um and physical silver but that's really It I mean aside from that my investments Are you know I go into them with this Kind of game plan and then when that Game plan plays out and I get that 10 or 20 move in let's say a couple weeks I'm Just taking that money and then I find

Another opportunity and I think that's One of the great things about technical Trading is that you can trade stocks you Can trade Commodities you can trade Crypto and so there's so many options That there's always another trade there For you to take if you get out of one Okay so which markets and assets do you Primarily trade definitely stocks Definitely stocks and the only reason I Would love to trade crypto more and and I don't even day trade crypto really Because for the most part there's not Enough volatility like I'm someone who Needs volume in a trade and the reason I Like volume in a trade is because it Gives me protection it means that if I Have a large position and there's enough Liquidity I can get out of that position It also means that if there's a big Player and if it's a very thin crypto if That player dumps it's going to wreck my Trade I don't want to put myself in that Risk factor position so with liquid Things I'm really limiting myself to Like the top 20 cryptos and really we Know that from the top 20 cryptos for The most part everything moves with Bitcoin so really what you're what You're reduced to is as a swing Trader You're like am I bullish Bitcoin or am I Bearish which one right and so there's Just not a lot of opportunities in Crypto like there is in stocks where you

Have earnings and you have all these Other things going on on a daily basis And these moves up and down Okay Um you just said something interesting Am I bullish or am I bearish on bitcoin I think maybe that's a good segue into Asking what your opinion is on on Bitcoin in in 2023 Yeah so I think I think for me this this Is very reminiscent we're seeing this Big pump up recently Um and I think for me it's looking at it In a holistic approach and saying okay You know to me this looks very much like During the.com collapse when we had These bounces and it got people very Very uh bullish very quickly because we All remember how amazing 2021 was and it Was 2000 and 1999 back then and so you Get this kind of sentiment Rush of Greatness and like oh my God I can make The same amount of money I made in 2021 Problem is it's usually during the bear Market here it's usually going to be Kind of a a bear trap or a bull trap so So I think that's for me the issue here Is that it makes me think we still have Some downside to go in Bitcoin but I do Think in 2023 we finally bottom out I Think regulation will help with that and I think finally you know people will Start to view at least Bitcoin as more Of a safety gold kind of digital gold

Hedge uh versus the overall stock market And is there like a level that Invalidates that thesis um so you said Like could be a bull trap is there like A certain uh certain price action that That you'll see and you'll be like okay Let's kind of let's re uh reevaluate Things yeah so and that's 100 true so so Any good Trader has to be able to Pivot When the charts tell them to Pivot so Right now and we can take a look at my Chart if that's cool with you is we can See that again this move up has been a Fantastic move in Bitcoin but again if We look at the bigger picture it's still A very small move in the overall market Right so if you look at this High down And so for me I look at that and I say Okay we haven't even taken out this high At 25 000 which was kind of even even a little Bit above that if you look at the 2021 Level here right so if we go to the lows Of 2021 basically it crosses right Through this area here right so this Area and then this area so for me at in The very least we would need to see Bitcoin trade above 30 for me to even Start to kind of think that maybe the Lows are in and again it makes a lot of Sense right if we can establish Ourselves back Above This level now You're back above some very pivotal Levels in the last couple years in

Bitcoin's history and you could argue That you're kind of closer to the highs At that point you're getting closer to That 50 percent closer to the highs Versus the lows on the chart so so I Think 30 000 for me would be a pivotal Level there is one more level that I Want to show you here which is kind of It was a key breakdown point so you just Want to watch this as well you have your Pivot lows here connecting perfectly to Here here and we can see we broke there So if we did get above 30 we would want To see what happens at 42 but already at 42 you could still have the lows in so I Think 30 000 for me is really a big Pivotal level here Okay and until then maybe you think it's A bit of uh it might be potentially a Bull trap so you wouldn't be getting too Excited in the short term because I see Twitter it's certainly getting excited Right now yeah I mean that's and that Concerns me like if you go to past Fair Markets and stocks Commodities even past In crypto I mean look at 2018 into 2019 In crypto is when we had a bounce of This magnitude off the lows we were like Three thousand thirty five hundred on Bitcoin we went to about 6 000 which was A hundred percent gain and people were Still so scared that the lows weren't in I mean no one was really shouting that Oh my goodness here's the new bull

Market here we are all we've done is go Up you know basically 35 off the lows Versus 100 back in 2017 uh 18 and 19 and We have such bullish sentiment and That's that's a concern because past Market bottoms now this could be Different but past Market bottoms which Tells me its probability are telling me To not get too excited just yet So what probability do you think that The um bottom is in for crypto could you Like put a number on it or yeah I would Say 20 to 25 so so about 75 give or take That it's not in yet that the lows are Not in just based on the technicals as Well as the psychological sentiment so Again there is a 25 chance it is I mean And again as a technical Trader we have To gauge that and kind of be like all Right you know that's the chance so so If you're going to go short crypto you Have to take that factor that you could Be wrong 25 of the time into account so It's it's the risk factors when you're Analyzing probabilities give you the Ability to do proper position size Proper risk right and that's really Really important for Traders and Investors Yeah so is there a level where you're Looking at going short crypto in general Yeah so what for me at least with Bitcoin now so it's Consolidated here Right so if we go in we've been chopping

Here you did get a topping tail right Here topping tails are bearish reversal Signals and you can see that Bitcoin did Fall off of that for me if we got a big Move up to 30 000 right here then then I Would absolutely short Bitcoin at that Point it's such a powerful resistance Here in terms of the charts that that Would be the the high probability Pullback level now again would I hold it Till 15 or 16 000 probably not because Again you don't know at that point if The lows are in but what I would do is I Would leg out I'd probably you know once We're back to let's say 25 000 from 30 I Would take a quarter off and then at 20 Take a call you know kind of like inch Out but let a little bit run on the Downside Are you interested in playing that trade Let's say like you know we do exhibit um Bullish price momentum maybe we break Through 23 and consolidate above that Level Um do you try and play that trade to Like 25 to 28 or is it or is it too much Of like a small margin for you yeah so I Mean that would be possibility right so So for me it would be one of these Things where there's a big level here Also it if we look at this High area Right here right so kind of right where We came up to and kissed we have the High of this consolidation level and

That's kind of where we've stopped up so What you could do is if you get a good Bull flag and it gets Above This level You could play it for a run if it gets Above 25 230 and that would be Interesting for me it's because we've Already run up so much it would be one Of those scenarios where I would Probably put a very small amount of Money in but you could absolutely do That again it's all about that risk Management of how much you're putting Into that trade Um and I think right now the market it's It it's hard to trade because it's very Macro dominant so basically whatever pal Says is kind of dictating Um how markets move and crypto being so Related to equities are kind of Moves In Tandem so since the Market's so macro Dominant do you have a view um on the Macro and powers or rate hike cycle and How that could potentially affect Equities Yeah so so my my theory on or my Forecast on how the rest of the year Will play out in terms of Bitcoin coming Back in I think by the second half of This year and maybe even the end of the Second quarter of this year I think what You're going to see is the economy Starting to slip into recession but Inflation's still above what the FED Feels comfortable at for you know

Basically printing more money and I Think that's going to be the real issue Here is that if you have if you have Economy that's slipping into recession And the FED doesn't come to the rescue Because inflation's too high you're Going to see stocks collapse I mean you Will see 25 more downside on on the S P 500 maybe 30 35 on the NASDAQ and then That puts us in a position where like You said if risk assets like stocks are Collapsing how does Bitcoin withstand That selling Fury and I think that for Me would be one of the cases of why Bitcoin could still go back down Do you think there's a potential Scenario that big Bitcoin decouples from Equities or are we still a um like a While away from that Um I think we're actually closer than Than a lot of people think I think by The end of this year you could see that And and the thought process would be is That if we get in and this is kind of Like the worst case scenario but if if The economy gets into a recession but The FED can't bail us out we could be in A multi-year recession and and with a no Bailouts from the FED printing of money The question is well where does the Where does money go now if you get some Regulation in the crypto markets where All of a sudden institutional money says Wait a minute we know that there's

Transparency we can trust the the books That we're seeing we know our money's Not going to disappear now you could Have people saying well yeah I was Invested in the stocks but we're in a Long-term recession where would I put my Money in the near term maybe crypto's The answer there and maybe Bitcoin sees Some money flow even in a recession so I Think that would be my case where where You could actually see Bitcoin decouple From risk assets Yeah because everyone kind of has a Different view on bitcoin I think but Right now it's kind of Um a digital gold people said it was an Inflation hedge it turned out that it Maybe wasn't the best inflation hedged Do you have a view uh long term on what Bitcoin ends up becoming Yeah I do think it's going to be the Digital gold right it's not really Something where people are going to be Doing transactions consistently I think It's one way to send money you know like If you wanted to send some money to Someone in another country very very Easily but for the most part you're not Going to be buying your Starbucks with Um with Bitcoin so I think I think for The most part the institutions are Already buying it as a hedge against Future money printing which even though I've said I think the FED would be

Handcuffed over the next year or so There will be a point where they have to Go back to it probably when unemployment Starts to spike really quite a bit Higher maybe at five or seven or ten Percent they're going to be forced to Print again and that's where that Digital gold really gains value where Bitcoin can really Skyrocket so I think That that definitely is interesting to Look at I was just interested I know you'll you Know you're mostly an equities Trader And mostly trade Bitcoin as well but do You have any opinion on like ethereum And some of these these old coins as Well yeah absolutely so I mean in chart Terms anyways you know ethereum to me Same kind of thing if bitcoin's Gonna Roll Over I think ethereum comes in as Well but what I love about ethereum is That if if we actually get to a point Right where we have the regulation and We know what a security is and I'm Assuming that ethereum will be Classified as a security then I think That you have some real interest in Investing behind it and again to me this Ethereum would be like Apple computer Right or like apple in terms of they Have so many things built on top of Their platforms where there is a lot of Value here now again I don't know a lot About some of the all coins like when

You go down past the top 20 but I mean Even look at Solana right Solana can Process 50 000 transactions per what is It per second even faster than ethereum I mean there's definitely some use cases For this stuff so for me to feel Comfortable in investing in a lot of These though I need to know the rules Right what what are the security rules That the SEC is going to bring forth and I think institutions are in the same Boat once we get that then we can make Decisions on how much Capital to a lot That's interesting that you said that That maybe you're waiting for a bit more Clarity because I imagine like a lot of Other expert Um Traders but also primarily Institutions will be doing the exact Same thing waiting on the sidelines and Going okay let's see how this is Regulated and then we can we can make More educated decisions yeah and that Goes back to that risk right and that Being able to quantify you know if if Especially if like a hedge fund right Hedge funds have a fiduciary Responsibility to monitor risk for their Investors that are putting millions of Dollars in their hedge fund so they just Can't be like oh well I hope the SEC has These good rules that are going to be Beneficial right you can't take that Risk so I think there's a lot of fund

Managers that want to invest but they're Just being held back because you know Their jobs are on the line if they make A bad decision and crypto collapses Let's say and they get wiped out they're Out of a job and remember they're making Like millions and millions a year so They don't want to lose those jobs It's not worth risking it on online Or anything like that So what are your thoughts on the echo Bubble because that's a term that I see Being chucked around quite a lot on on On Twitter now could you explain like What an echo bubble is and if if you Think that's kind of the situation we're In right now yeah I would just say that I I absolutely agree that that is what Happens and you do see it it's like a Reverberation right so so you get in These you have these amazing bull Markets and I kind of touched on it Earlier where where you have this Scenario where you had such an amazing Market move in 2021 and everyone Remembers it right it was like the good Old days and so we want to naturally It's human psychology to go back and Remember how much money we made remember When I made 5x or 100x on the Dogecoin And so you just as human nature is we Want to believe it's gonna happen again And so you get these periods where you Have these relief rallies short covering

Rallies and then it excites people and They start to believe again right and I Think that's exactly what we're in right Now and it does happen every bull market If you look at the declines uh after a Bull market you'll have these pockets of These bulb bounces along the way and Again we call it bull traps or something Like that but yeah it absolutely happens So let's assume we are in you know maybe A a bull trap and that's not to say we Can't go to 30 but in general we will See new lows as you as you mentioned Before Um what's your outlook for for Um equities and I guess Bitcoin heading Into the Um the tail end of 2023 do you think Like we see a positive response heading Into next year and kind of Um kick off the the typical cycle that That crypto tends to follow So I'm in more in the camp that that the Equity markets will collapse in the Second half and that'll take Bitcoin Down but I do think Bitcoin bottoms out In 2023 towards the end of the year Initially I was even thinking May or June but based on the cycles that I'm Seeing playing out right now it seems Somewhat unlikely that we'll see that Bottom yet but I do think later in the Year the markets the stock market dumps And then we see Bitcoin kind of follow

Suit but there's this pivot point where All of a sudden we start to see Bitcoin Catch a bit at the lows and it starts to Reverse even without the stock market as We get clarity on regulation so so for Me I would say look to and again this is One of those things where if you're Someone who loves Bitcoin long term just You can dollar cost average but leave Yourself some side money to go in later On right if it does dump you want to be Able to buy at lower lows if not you Have some exposure to the upside but Yeah I do think I do think the second Half of the year will be tough and That's even going into the having next Year I think Bitcoin will start to Rebound into that but I do think we Before then we go down Yeah do you believe in halving Cycles do You think that's a real Catalyst for Bitcoin as it has been in the past or do You think now maybe Um maybe because I guess the Market's so Aware of of the harvesting that it kind Of has less of an impact so I do think That you're correct on that if the more Investors are aware of something the More they'll try to front run it and You'll see kind of you know float up a Little bit and then smart money starts To use that to their advantage to unload Into so I do think there's something to It but a lot of times as we as we get

Into it and we when everyone's already Talking about it like oh that's going to Be the low you know so you know it's It's almost like a a killing prophecy Where everyone says it and then it Doesn't necessarily end up being the key Case so again I think maybe the having Turns out to be the low on bitcoin or Right around there uh maybe a little bit Earlier but I don't necessarily know if We'll see this monster rally going into It You said equities Um towards the end of the year that's When they're likely to bottom and that's When you said Bitcoin could bottom as Well what's your exact thesis behind That does that line up with um the rate Hikes and and the probability of going To a recession what's your thought Process behind maybe looking at um the Second half of the uh as a level where We could Um see you know detrimental price action Yeah so definitely definitely the thesis Behind Um Equity markets having a big leg down In the second half of the year is that We do finally get into a recession and It's something that we've been we keep On seeing these amazing jobs numbers but Then every day I'm hearing about eBay Amazon meta laying off you know Thousands of employees and we we have to

Know that at some point that's going to Filter into the jobs numbers so so there Will be a point in the second half where We slip into recession and again I think The key Catalyst for why the markets are Going to panic on that is that the FED Is going to make it clear or we're going To know from the inflation data that It's not low enough for them to print us Out of that scenario and so that's I Mean think about this we we have not had A natural market since two since before 2009 meaning a natural market where the FED did not come to the rescue of the Market every time it had had a Recessionary move and so we're kind of Like almost like a drug addict that's Addicted to this fed quantitative easing Where it's just like oh we're in a tough Spot print money to make us feel better Make us feel better and I think if the FED finally was like in a position where They were handcuffed and they couldn't Do that that's your Catalyst for a major Panic in the equity markets and also in Bitcoin but I think again Bitcoin at in That final flush would then pivot and Become a safety asset Well it's interesting that you say that As well because as they print more money At some point people have to say like Enough's enough we need an asset that's Going to hold up and obviously gold and Silver are viewed in that category maybe

That's the role that Bitcoin ends up Adopting and maybe that's its Catalyst Eventually to run that's that's that's My hypothesis is that it that eventually It does become that where the FED will Hold off printing of money for as long As they can but like I said you know if You get I mean if you told me that in That that unemployment was 12 or 15 in The U.S you can't tell me the FED at That point is not going to start Printing again because you'd have so Many people out of jobs such hardship For everyone they'd be forced back into It and then the question is well where Do you put your money sure gold but gold Is somewhat illiquid right I mean you Can buy some gold but it's hard to just Sell it in the store buy buy anything With it but Bitcoin fills that void and That's my long-term bull case for Bitcoin What do you think the top asset could be In 2023 because if it is a tricky year Then you know it's going to be hard to Hold any Index Fund or anything that's Exposed to that kind of downside are There any assets you're looking at That's like well okay this might be able To perform Um Against the Grain like Commodities or Gold silver yeah so so my asset and I Said this at the end of 2022 is gold for 2023 and again I think 2024 is bitcoin's

Year I do think that you will see much Better performance but for in terms of Safety you can see a number one already An amazing move up in Gold but what I Love about gold here and this is getting To charts right is that you actually Have what's called a bull flag formation Or in spirit of bull Flags so this would Be a consolidation pattern following a Bullish breakup here and again this is a Classic consolidation pattern that when This line breaks here you're going to Get a very nice move up to new all-time Highs on gold so so I actually think Gold when you compare it to bitcoin or The s p will be looked at back at and Said okay for 2023 that was the best Performer but then I do think by 2024 Bitcoin takes over and Bitcoin has way More upside than gold long term it's Just you know we're still in this kind Of like figuring out where the lows are In Bitcoin where it's it's very risky And probably still has some downside What's the relationship between like Gold equities and bonds how does it Generally react to the market Yeah so with gold and equities right so So generally and a lot of this has to do With the dollar right so if we look at The US dollar and I think this is a Fascinating thing to look at is this This really is all about Um Bitcoin as well right so when the

Dollar goes up we see gold pulling back And interestingly enough if you look at This High here right this high was in September October November this area Right here it's actually right when Bitcoin bottomed out as well right right Here early November and so the dollar When it topped out Bitcoin was bottoming Out and if we go to the gold chart same Thing right here here you are you know Octo September October November and then Look at gold when the dollar fell so if We go back to the dollar as the as it's Fallen here we've seen Bitcoin we've Seen gold take off even Silver's rallied And even Equity stock prices have Rallied as well and then if we look we Can start to see okay wait a minute the Dollar is beginning to bounce and we've Seen Bitcoin start to stall out a little Bit here start to see some selling Gold's falling off take a look at the Recent gold chart look at this dump out On gold as soon as the dollar started to Bounce so so for me that's something That I really watch closely and when the Dollar starts telling me it's going to Dump out again which inevitably it will Then that's the time to go in Bitcoin And go in Gold again Where do you see the dollar heading over The next six months to to one year do You see Um the resumption of an uptrend or do

You think it's topped out Yeah so I I think you're due for a Continued bounce here we've had a very Sharp decline over the last couple Months right so I do think there's a Little bit more upside but ultimately I Do think the dollar will eventually head Down as as we start to see economic data Weaken more and more the jobs data Eventually weaken more and more people Will start to forecast that the FED will Have to start lowering rates when they Lower rates that inevitably will weaken The dollar the ultimate long case is That if they lower rates enough and it Doesn't help they're going to have to Start printing money again and again all Of those things weaken the dollar so so Again again that kind of breeds the why The gold and and Bitcoin plays will be Long-term successes in my opinion I think we've seen Commodities perform Quite strongly as as Um an inflation hedge is that something You look at like positioning yourself in I guess like oil and other Commodities Like that yeah definitely definitely I Mean oil is a little tricky right and Same thing with natural gas if we look At the oil chart here so this is one of Those where you have to be really really Careful because you know this is one Where hype was absolutely out of control And I want to show you this so so this

Is when Russia invaded Ukraine right Here and you had this meteoric Spike to 130 and I still remember vividly if you Turned on the TV and if you went on Twitter everyone was telling you it was Going to go to 150 and then 200 a barrel Yet interestingly enough if we go to the Monthly chart right check this out the Monthly chart was actually telling us That we were topping out look at this Beautiful parallel line right here right So that's your high and look at how it Went right to that same line which Matched up with these lows and so Interestingly enough it gave us a Contrarian play on this and even though Oils come back a lot net net I'm still Bearish on oil because I still think That if the U.S is going to slide into Recession and we're really talking Europe into recession I mean maybe maybe Australia maybe other countries Following suit the demand for oil is Going to be the issue and you're going To see a lower demand and that's going To be problematic for oil in terms of Going up so it doesn't mean we can't Bounce a little bit here but but I still Have a downside price target of around 63 64 on oil before I even think about Going long Okay so you actively tried um Commodities as well as as Equity yeah Yeah the beauty of it is it's charts

Right so I I just like if I see a good Chart as long as it has volume I'm I'm Ready to go Even even all coins one day maybe if They have liquidity coming in yeah and I Do trade listen I do trade Solana I do Trade like some of those other ones but I stick within the top 20 20 25 because I need I need like good liquidity and Volume right I don't know if you did you see what Happened with Aptos the um the kind of The newer L1 the tickers APT it's this Coin that launched with a lot of hype And a lot of VC backing and um it kind Of started ripping and everyone was Shorting because everyone's like the Fully diluted valuation here is higher Than Solana it's actually the highest Valued L1 Um you know This is crazy so let's short short but All those shorts just ended up um Squeezing the price up and up and up and Then eventually Um yeah every like everyone just got Erect on it so it's an interesting trade To see whether it is and one thing to Just keep in mind one thing that a Chartist needs like a technical analyst Needs is you need you need history right So the first thing that jumps out to me Is that you have very little information And remember history gives us the

Ability to analyze past situations how Did it behave and so when you don't have A lot of history you've got to be Careful because like you see here you Can get squeezed real easy in the all Coins So is there kind of um uh before we wrap Up here like a an underlying piece of Advice that that you give Um to crypto traders in in 2023 Obviously it's going to be a volatile You're likely going to be a shakier like We're going to see huge pumps and then Also swings to the downside how do you Manage all that how do you sift through Um the rubbish and work out what's fact Yeah biggest thing again is to to try to Learn sharks support and resistance Levels and and really again if there's One thing I tell people is is like if You see everyone calling something out Like hey this is going to go to a Million dollars or whatever it may be Really try not to get sucked into that Hype the hype is where most people get In trouble like again if you buy if you Bought you know Bitcoin at 30 000 or 20 Or wherever you know overall you're not That far out of the money as opposed to If you were buying at 65 or 69 000. so So you really gotta really notice that Hype and stay away from it and then the Other thing is remember there's always Another trade right so this is one of

The things I learned is early on I was Like oh my God you know I have to do This trade because I'm just I need that Adrenaline I need that and now I'm at a Point where it's like all right if that Trade already bounced a little bit I Don't care there's another one tomorrow I'll take or the next week there's Always another trade around the corner So you never have to feel like you have To get into the current trade be patient Let your levels come you want to find a Level that you want to trade be patient Be disciplined let it come to you you Don't chase it Love it well it's a super super good Perspective and um obviously you know I Think you're one of the best teachers And um not only Charters but I think Educators in the space because you work Things so um so so well they help people Understand kind of the mindset Um Behind these things so um no I really Thank you for joining joining the show Today and I think there's a lot to take Out of it Oh thank you so much honestly been a Pleasure chatting with you I love the Educational side and again thank you for Having me miles I appreciate it thank You very much I'll see you later That was awesome we had we had Gareth on The show Um I think it's really good to get

Another perspective as well you see so Many people in this market just um Non-stop bullish bullish bullish Um and it's you know it's also good to Get um the other side as well and then Work out you know what levels as a Trader we use to uh validate or Invalidate our thesis so I think it was A great show Um watch it again on two speed if you Want to learn something new and yeah I Will see you guys in the next interview Show which will be with another guest Next week as you guys know I do my Weekly series and then um after the show I also summarize it on a Twitter thread So make sure you're following me on Twitter Um to stay up to date with that share This with a friend if you want to help Them out of the market I think it's Important to help our friends out and Help our friends become better Traders As well as ourselves and until the next One I will see you later peace out

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