Pro Bitcoin Trader Gives Warning For 2023 (Price Targets Revealed with Alessio Rastani)

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Pro Bitcoin Trader Gives Warning For 2023 (Price Targets Revealed with Alessio Rastani)


Welcome in everybody we have a special Guest a friend of our Channel who's Going to be talking about some very Important topics actually voted by you Guys on Twitter he's going to be Covering the 2023 potential devastating Economic downfall that we have he's Going to be covering the latest on the Kiss of death as well as what he's Expecting in q1 and Whether he thinks the bottom is in Welcome Alessio rastani from to the channel Alessio Great to have you welcome in Yeah thanks Dave Katrina good to speak With you again thanks for having me in Your program thanks Alessio is going to Be jumping into the the charts so I'm Putting actually the chart I think was One of your uh favorites Steve as well I Accidentally it seems we both Accidentally stumbled on a similar time Frame because I know you use you Steve You like to use the the 12 day I've got Something very similar to that two-week Time frame they both they're both very Similar So me and you were just talking about a Crossover on the macd On this time frame and I've been I Actually looked at this uh I've been Watching this macd for several months uh Even back as far as November and December of last year and finally we got

A crossover at the beginning of this Year I think it was January or late December we had this crossover on the Macd and I know you probably mentioned This yourself Steve but it's worth just Mentioning again because whenever this Macd crossover occurs below the zero Line like we've had it here uh to me That's a very strong bullish signal and I don't look at the macd Crossovers that Are above zero or significantly above Zero like this one if it's close to zero Like when I say zero I mean over here I Don't know if you guys can see my Pointer so usually when uh as when the Macd crossover occurs from below zero on This two-week time frame I mean obviously you want to combine Other factors with the two like Divergences and things like that but Usually when the macd crossover on a Two-week time frame occurs below zero It's a very strong bullish signal and Has a very high win rate going forward Uh We've looked at examples of 2020 uh 2015 I think it was 20 is it 2012 I Think it was the previous one before That so there's been several positive uh Forward returns potential returns let me Also mentioned again this is not a Holy Grail obviously any indicator any signal Is has potential to be a false signal Too but I would say that's where you Have to do some risk management so I

Would say I'm going to give this signal The benefit of doubt I'm going to go With the signal what I have here on my Chart I'm I'm leaning towards the Bullish side on bitcoin as long as we Can protect and stay above uh the January lows near 17K so I think as long As Bitcoin can protect and stay above 18 17K the path at least for now Bulls are Remaining in control here and I think Even if we see a pullback in the short Term we may potentially see a pullback In the short term maybe to the Daily Averages uh but but ultimately I'm Looking for higher levels and you can See I've actually outlined on my chart Some of these levels here the 38.2 Percent The 50 and the 61.8 percent Retracements these are logarithmic Retracements of the entire decline from 2021 to 2022. so if you just do a Fibonacci retracement the entire decline From the high to the lows Bitcoin to retrace some of those to Those levels absolutely it could I don't Think I don't think it's likely we'll See all-time highs I think uh as my good Friend Charlie Burton and yourself has Said I think it's less likely and I Would probably agree with that Um I don't think it's likely will you Eat your hat Uh well I use my uh my hat no so I'm not

Going to commit myself to that yeah I Might I might eat sir and no no I won't I won't even do that I was gonna say I Might eat an egg sandwich which I hate I Despise egg sandwiches um a beef Sandwich An egg sandwich It was like I would say is My Kryptonite I I hate egg sandwiches uh anyway I'm a Vegan anyway so I wouldn't even read That but that's that's part of the worst Thing I would commit to if I'm wrong Sorry here's what I would say keeping it Simple I don't think at all-time Highs But this year is likely but could we see A counter Trend rally absolutely I mean It looks to me this is a counter Trend Rally we're retracing some of that Decline from last year so what is the Most likely levels we could reach well The first logarithmic Fibonacci Retracement is 38.2 usually in a after a Decline price tends to at least retrace Back to its Fibonacci levels Fibonacci 38.2 percent is 27 432 yeah I think it's about their level 27 400 is approximately there the next About that is the 50 retracement is that 20 a bigger part of thirty two thousand Seven hundred and fifteen Potentially I mean if price were to get Significantly above the 27 400 level It's quick potentially even go to the Fifty percent retracement at thirty two

Thousand above that level and we have The uh 61 to 100 golden ratio Retracement thirty nine thousand that's The next retracement level so Doug am I Saying it's going to go to every single One of those retracement levels in the Fibonacci levels no no I'm not saying That anything against it Anything is possible but From a probabilistic perspective I think perhaps the first level to me is Much more likely the 38.2 percent of 20 27 000 or that's gonna be the first Resistance for me and as a level that Bitcoin could reach Perhaps after a pullback in the short Term and is it possible by the end of This year we may reach some of those Other levels too like 32 700 to 39 Absolutely so let's see if the momentum If this momentum keeps pushing higher Those are the levels I'll be I'll be Watching and it's worth keeping an eye Out and the last thing I want to say is Uh by the way as long as I should say as Long as price can stay above support Support is at uh 17 or 18K before we go To the the next chart I think it's Pretty cool we were both watching the Macd the reason that we're looking at it On the 12 day it just triggers a few Months earlier than the two week and There's no false signals on the 12 day So I wanted to give people some

Foreshadowing that was my only wish for Christmas that we had across and we had It in the beginning of November so Christmas was pretty good so you you're On the fence of saying like hey the Bottom the bottom is in I'm on defensive Saying that it looks like an Intermediate bottom has been reached People often interpret this word the Bottom and you and I will probably agree With me on uh I probably agree with this Steve that there's so much confusion When it comes to chart analysis And I would say this as long as when I Say the bottom I don't mean all-time Highs so I'm talking about an Intermediate bottom perhaps for the Remaining for the next several months Perhaps even by the end of this year and What I mean by that is it looks like Like here's another thing I was going to Say look how many weeks now we've stayed Above the 21 weekly one Two three well we're closed above it In early January how long have we stayed Above it one two three at least three Weeks we're now in the fourth week That's a very strong sign it's a very Powerful bullish sign by the way because Usually when price gets above that Weekly net moving average If it was going to fail it should have Failed by now we look at the one we had In uh

Spring of last year again so it got Above it and then quickly failed went Below it again okay that's a that's a Strong that's a very bad sign when that Happens when it immediately it fails There have been times in the past when Price has gone above it rallied above it And then failed some time later I mean Look back as far as 2020 when was that Uh that was that looked like it was in 2022 what was it yeah 2021 double top 2021 yeah so then Above it here it's it managed to stay Above it and rally higher form an Uptrend for several Several months or weeks So my point is that because they've Managed to stay above the 21 weekly now For at least three weeks three four Weeks now despite overbought conditions On the RSI and the daily time frame I Think this is a strong sign of strength For Bitcoin it hasn't failed as yet I Hope I haven't jinxed it uh accidentally There but you know we managed to stay Above that level that's a good sign and As I was saying earlier As long as we stay above that 21 weekly Average as long as we stick we can stay Above let's say 18K Um I think Bulls are in control and I Think my next Target is going to be There at that 27 400 level 38.2 let's See how Bitcoin does at that level

Um that's that's gonna be the test for Bitcoin how will it react to that level Okay so that's gonna be I'm going to be Watching that level with great interest 27 400 because that's going to give us a Lot of information can it succeed can it Succeed in getting above that level as Well let's say it gets a pullback and Then gets above that that could be a Sign of strength too let's see how Bitcoin reacts that level will it will It succeed in breaking through or will It just fail completely we don't know And there's no way to know so but that's Going to be a big clue big test for Bitcoin the 27 400 to maybe 30k level There psychological resistance okay That's really what I have man that's Really just getting it simple there That's what I'm looking at for the next Several weeks So I'm hearing that you're relatively Bullish Yeah in the medium term for Bitcoin how About the stock market Equally as bullish I should just add and people ask well How will you know if you're wrong well If Bitcoin were to drop below the 21 Weekly in a sustained way and I'm not Saying it's going to happen but if Bitcoin were to break support at 18K or 17K which I think is less likely I'm not Getting that I'm not giving that a high

Probability then then I would change my Mind I might consider changing my mind There and actually become bearish but Again I'm only mentioning that as a risk Factor in case in case I'm wrong on my View and we could be your own here but For me at the moment my higher Probability is to see more upside Towards that 27 400 level that's what I Just thought I'd mention that how about The stock market So I know that you're into the stock Market there's a lot of talk about the Stock market on how we could be in the Very beginning stages of a global Recession what are your thoughts on the Stock market are they the same as your Thoughts on bitcoin relatively I mean The two are positively correlated it's Difficult to imagine Bitcoin being able To go higher or significantly higher if The stock market continues to be in a Better market and keeps pushing lower so Usually there's this positive Correlation between stock market s p and The uh and Bitcoin and my main focus is Generally on the stock market on the Indices uh I think we've established a Key pivot low at the December lows the December lows was key for me I wanted to See if that level holds and it has so Far it has held and I just recently put Out a new video on the stock market Basically people may be asking you know

You had we had a kiss of death signal Last year in September kiss of death for People people who don't know is one of The strongest signals one of the most Strongest Bearer signals that occurs in The market but had that happen in September of last year however at the Time I warned look we need to see more Confirmation so we had a nice bounce After the kiss of death something we Expected was going to happen the Halloween effect between October December so we had a nice bounce between October to December which is normal Because the period of October December Is usually bullish for the market so We're expecting that kind of rally then We had a pullback Which is formed which form of December Lows we had to pull back to about 37 000 and 80 I think it was 37.83 approximate level there uh on the Chart there's no point going on the Chart because That important my point simply is this We've made the pivot low And in December the price declined Retraced made a pivot low in December And we've rallied off so I'm keeping it Simple You know we don't really need to look at Charts on this that point is very simple As long as the stock market can stay Above

3780 or 3750 approximate levels there Uh I'm gonna give the market the benefit Down I'm going to remain cautiously Bullish While I'm remaining bullish anyway and I'm gonna I'm gonna stay with this I'm Going to stay with this I think we're at The beginning of a major rally in the Stock market and we could test it all Because we could test some resistance Levels the August highs I mean it could Rally from from the December lows we Could see potentially a 10 to 20 rally And a lot of the data suggests I have to Tell you Steve a lot of the data kind of Said Jason geppert who does a lot of Sentiment work he does a lot of research On sentiments and statistics Data suggests that statistically Speaking the market could potentially by The end in the next 12 months by the end Of this year could potentially go up by 20 percent it might be right might be Wrong I mean we don't know but I'm Generally remaining cautiously bullish On the market as on the stock markets as Long as we stay above the December lows And what does that mean it means if if The market were to break the December Lows then I would have to change my mind Now I think it's a less at the moment That's a lower probability I'm not Expecting that December low to break

Uh at least for the next three to six Months okay I'm remaining of the view That we could see further higher levels At the very least to test the August Highs potentially a bit higher than that As well but As long as as long as we stay as long as The sap and Bitcoin as long as they both Stay above the December lows I'm Remaining cautiously bullish I'm looking For further upside in both of these Markets and that's basically how I see It at the moment so we had similar views Yeah here's the thing Steve people Always say look this is a bit this is a Better truck this is a better truck it's A false rally okay fine it could be and I'm sure there are people watching this Who are thinking that right now that it Could be a bear trap it's a false rally It's a fake rally Could it be that possible yes anything Is possible but it's not here's where Everybody gets to go wrong they confuse Possibilities with probabilities is it Possible this could be a bear trap Absolutely But it's a probable based on everything I'm looking at right now not just the Charts that obviously we look at charts We get technicals but other factors too So potential Elliott weight counts but Also statistically looking statistics Looking at sentiment

Everything seems to point the opposite That this is not just a bear trap at Least for now I'm not I'm not expecting It what I mean by that is I'm not Expecting an immediate collapse This month or at least the next couple Of months the next few months I think It's difficult to predict too far in the Future but at least I would say In the first half of this year In the first half of this year I'm going To remain bullish let's see what happens By September October but I'm I'm going To remain cautiously bullish for the Next three months at least the next Three to six months let's see what Happens my final question Alessio is so We have we have similar views about Where Bitcoin is right now kind of where The the market is sounds like both of us Are In a small group of of crazy people Where the rest of the people are Pointing fingers at us and laughing what What do you think about this bull run For Bitcoin how high could we get some People are throwing out numbers half a Million a quarter of a million have you Studied those charts and what what's Your Gut telling me like I think I think You're talking about a long term now Aren't you like several years right Right Yeah well I would say this

If the stock market can make all-time Highs by the end of this year or next Year it's conceivable the Bitcoin may Also make old-time highs uh I mean what I mean by that is if the stock market Can show strength to the point that it Takes out its prior highs prioritizing The stock market was 4818. then is it possible or even Probable that Bitcoin could also take Apps all-time highs yes uh maybe maybe Next year uh but I don't wanna I don't Want to walk I don't think we should Work before we can run for now I'm just Picking a conservative point of view so As you saw in my chart earlier I pointed Out three levels where we made retrace To you know based on the Fibonacci Logarithmic retracement levels so the 38.2 50 60 61.8 percent retracement the Decline of the crash we had last year Those at the moments seem more probable To me more likely to me Or never this year anyway but going Above the all-time highs and then Potentially 100K very difficult for me To say at this point Um could it happen in the next couple of Years yes anything is possible but is it Probable I really don't know and then at This point I really don't know let's see How Bitcoin performs By September by the middle of this year Then I can have some more information

That I can go with but it's very Difficult to say uh but I will say this Though Steve I will say this if Bitcoin Can take out his old-time highs Could it go to 100K yes absolutely Because there is a there is a potential Wave count a potential wave count I'm Not I'm not saying a high probability But there is a potential wave count that Suggests that if Bitcoin takes out the Old-time highs then yes it could go to The 100K level there I know that's Disappointing to some people in the Sense that I don't I'm sorry I cannot be More precise than that at this point Let's see how we go in the next few Months then we can add more information Uh but I don't want to jump the gun at This point and say yeah we're definitely Going there's there are some people out There who are saying yeah we're Definitely going to 100K but when you Listen to their arguments it's not Really based on technicals it's mostly Based on fundamentals or right uh shall We say preconceived notions of the Worth Or the value of Bitcoin which I don't Really put it much into that to be Perfectly honest have you seen my 5.3 Theory No I haven't no oh this is fascinating I Think you would really like it so yeah Sure each market cycle when Bitcoin is In its Bull Run if you take that

Percentage gain from the lowest point of The bull of the bear Market to the Highest point of that bull run and you Divide by 5.3 it equals the percentage Gain for the next cycle and if you take That percentage gain from the lowest Point of the bull run to the highest Point of the boat of the bull run that Percentage gain divided by 5.3 equals The next cycle and it's been happening Bitcoin's entire history it's really Fascinating I don't know why is this This 5.3 is a ratio that you've Calculated it's just a math equation I Just I just set it up like a math Equation I was looking for similarities Fractal patterns I was studying all These different factors between Market Cycles and I'm like oh my goodness 5.3 No I've never heard anybody talk about It and it's exactly 5.3 like to the T Yes and it's fascinating that's very Interesting that is interesting I'm Going to look into that one it's very Interesting but fascinating I agree with You and these ratios can be very useful I think that Robert Proctor even Mentioned that he likes to use ratios he Likes to use Fibonacci ratios to make His calculations and you have a point You have a very good point there I would I would just I would just uh caution Though this could be a party pooper a Buzz kill but I was once talking to a

Great Trader Linda rashke who's by the Way I think she was featured in one of The market Wizards books you've heard of Market Wizards right by Jack schwager Uh I think with the second edition of This book which I have Market Wizards by Jack shortage was a Classic now she was in the second one The second modernizers and she says Something she made she said something Very interesting She said The moment you think You have Found the key to the market is the Moment where the market will kind of Change the look Which is a depressing thought uh Unfortunately and I think she's got a Point because I made listen I've made This mistake as well you stumble on Something I'm not saying it's a mistake Seriously I'm not saying what you've Done I think it's a great um you may Have stumbled into something very good Very interesting uh but here's the thing Once everybody starts and I asked her I Asked her by the way Linda what do you Mean by this that when you when you Found when you think you found the key The market will change the look what do You mean by that what she meant was once Something becomes well known once Everybody starts using the same ideas

And looks unfortunately the market then Is you know markets as you said is a Fractal it's Evolving based on chaos theory and you Know just like chaos theory is Unfortunate as unpredictable markets are Unpredictable and they cannot be Forecasted from too far into the future And they change they evolve So they that's what she means by Changing the lock as soon as you think You found something the key Boom the Market says sorry my friend I'm going to Change the log for you so and that's why It's so frustrating people will say oh Why do you change your mind you just Said a few weeks ago or a few months ago That this is going to happen and now You're changing your mind yeah because It's not up to us it's because of chaos Because of the chaotic nature of the Market they keep evolving they keep Changing the rules so maybe a few months Ago this was the rule this was the key But now they've changed the law care for Us so that's no it's true there's no way To know what's for certain but every Single market so far every Market cycle For Bitcoin is a factor of 5.3 of a Diminishing return everybody is talking About oh Bitcoin is diminishing returns Yes by exactly a precise factor of 5.3 Like to the T so yeah I'm going to look Into that that's really interesting

Thanks Steve if you take that from from The lows that we had and and you project It out using the 5.3 Theory it says We're not going to get above 100K for The next Bull Run and just that's what's Interesting because that alone has Really counter-intuitive everyone would Argue me based on their feelings that It's going to go above 100K yes well That's an interesting point thanks Steve And uh I would say for people who find That disappointing uh or people who find That uh depressing Well at least you can hope that maybe The markets will come and change the Look I hope I hope that I hope Absolutely yeah I I hope so too but Alessio thank you for coming on the show Everybody needs to go follow Alessio He'll be in the pinned comment we'll put It in the description uh Alessio is a friend of The channel make sure you show him some Love Alessio thanks for coming on today oh Thanks very much Steve really appreciate It do you want to know when to buy and When to sell click this video right now

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