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Timestamps:

0:00 Intro
1:23 Short term for Bitcoin
1:44 25,000
2:07 Reversal
2:43 Short Term Top
3:27 Mid Period
4:39 15,700
5:10 Lower Target
6:06 Bear Market – First Phase
9:31 Bearish Divergence
9:46 Bullish Divergence
10:35 Secondary Deep
11:41 Sentiment Indicator
13:08 100k
13:32 5.3 Theory
14:11 Less than 90k
15:05 Trendline
15:23 Law of Large numbers
15:38 Smaller Bull Cycles
17:03 Dot-Com Bubble

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Pro Bitcoin Trader Has BOLD 12k Prediction + Stock Market Crash (Gareth Soloway)

#bitcoin

Welcome everybody we have our special Guest Gareth returning to the show and I'm super excited to talk with him it's Been a few months since we've had Gareth On the show Gareth and I shared similar views over a Year ago where we were both like hey There's gonna be a pretty large crash Coming to the Bitcoin space the crypto Space a lot of people probably doubted Garrett they definitely doubted me we Had a big drop and what's beautiful is When we got near the bottom or what's Been the bottom so far Gareth and I Differed in opinions which I absolutely Love I love to hear somebody's take That's different than mine and honestly I don't know what Gareth has to share With us today but I'm curious what his Targets are is his Target still 12K does He think the bottom is in the Bottom's Not in and then this Global recession That's supposed to happen this year What's his thoughts on that all of that And more coming in this episode Gareth Welcome to the channel it's great to Have you back oh it's so good to be back And yeah I love our conversations I love How we kind of can coincided with with Our call there and then kind of Differing I think differing opinions Give the the viewers the ability to make Up their own mind absolutely well I Would love to start with short term for

Bitcoin what are you seeing in the Charts what are you looking at what's Your take on bitcoin as we speak yeah so In the short term yesterday was a very Very important day uh from a technical Standpoint and what we saw yesterday was A follow-through from the previous big Update and then what we saw was we Touched the 25 000 level actually Piercing it and then the negative was The reversal right so I think any Technician who looks at that and says Okay that's a topping tail that's a Reversal day you have to be a little bit Careful if you're a Bitcoin ball when You see that type of price action Because essentially what it needs is you Saw this massive amount of euphoria fomo With retail investors in Bitcoin buying In and then we saw somehow a reversal of Epic Proportion which again wasn't the The small investor selling all of a Sudden right I mean the small investors Not saying oh 25 is the top here it's Usually the bigger money and so when you See bigger money unloading you have to Pay attention to that and so at this Point that's a top right now again can Tops be violated can they be broken Absolutely but I never want to jump the Gun I wanted to prove itself before I go On that side so right now you have a top At around 25 300 on bitcoin and unless That gets taken out with a daily close

You have to respect that as a short-term Top Um near term I do expect Bitcoin to come Back in and even over the midterm I Still think there's trouble brewing in The crypto market so I'm not a person That thinks the lows are in yet I know That may sound crazy to a lot of Investors in Bitcoin after this big run But again I would just draw my attention If I zoom out on this chart you know This is a great bounce nothing to take Away from it but in the scheme of the Move and in the scheme of the bear Market we have to keep in mind that by No means are we back above major Technical levels like 25 000 is a Technical level it's at a mid-level one But to be honest I'll show you where the Big one is the big one is at thirty Thousand right here and the reason why Psychologically this is a big level is Because this was your mid period of the 2021 bull market right this was the low Pivot right here so basically I'm saying To myself is that if for me to be Convinced that the lows are in on Bitcoin we need to trade above not just For a day but I want to see it hold Above for a little while above 30 000 And then I would say okay the lows are In but until that I think this could be A bear Market rug pull rally and I would Be very careful I would be cautious in

The short term as well I think from what I see we share the same view short term Where we differ is potentially where the Low could be I like your idea of the Thirty thousand I definitely support That as being very wise in terms of Viewers that are watching and they're Really looking for something more sure That is definitely the technical level That you should watch now when you Mention that the lows aren't in yet Where where are you thinking is 12K Still sort of a Target are you thinking Below 10 what are you thinking in terms Of your target for Bitcoin Yeah so so as of now I do think we do Take out the lows of I think it was Around fifteen thousand seven hundred And we probably head down to 12 to 13. I Still am in the camp that we have to Have Max Payne in the crypto market so You're probably talking about a pierce Of 10 to achieve that that would be Where most retail would probably really Panic and consider dumping their their Bags if you will so so I'm still in that Camp I think the driving force isn't Going to be another FTX like I'm not Really envisioning that Um there's gonna be a ton more of these Major fraud scenarios the the way we get To that lower Target is probably with a Macro recession right so if we think About it we know that the fed and even

Yesterday we heard from fed presidents That they were going to likely raise Rates further uh we saw the PPI numbers Are still very hot and so they're going To keep interest rates high for a long Period at least the entire year it's Very hard for me to imagine that Bitcoin And the stock market can withstand that And more importantly that the account Economy can withstand that so at some Point we slip into a recession if that's The case the s p probably has another 25 Down at least and if the s p drops 25 Percent the question you have to ask is How does Bitcoin fare during that period Right so for me I gotta imagine that Bitcoin would at least drop I mean you Know just to get back to the lows we Drop about eight to nine thousand Um um you know right in that vicinity And then the question is do we go even Lower with the s p collapsing that much And I think we do I think that that's The next cell so you have the first Phase of this bear Market which was kind Of the the bankruptcies and everything Like that you'll see some of that Continue if we go down to the levels That I say but I think that the big Driving force won't be unregulated Crypto I think the regulations are Coming it's going to be more the macro Environment where people get very very Rich adverse I agree with your premise

I'm with you on everything you said The only thing that that really gets to Me is two things number one The Bitcoin charts the ones that that I've studied in the past are saying like Hey the bottom could be in I get it from The macro perspective Global recession You know interest rates there's all These issues that have to play out it Has to be shaken out What makes me nervous is that the high Majority of people the past four five Six months have been saying you know What 2023 is going to be devastating you Know the top economists on planet Earth Not you know not 50 50 not not 70 30. It's like almost all of the top Economists are are saying that and that That makes me nervous Gareth what is Your take on the high majority of the Highly intelligent people all saying the Same thing which gets the average Investor saying the same thing what's Your take on that yeah and you're 100 Right right so we we had this scenario Where coming into 2023 it was it was Initially it was the first half that's Going to be horrendous and then I heard About a recovery in the second half well We've obviously seen the jobs numbers be Amazing and the economy is holding up in The first half and we're already you Know we're not at the end of the first Quarter yet but we're not too far away

So now you're seeing it shift and I Think so you're already proving some of Those people wrong and you're right when The majority says something is usually Not the case so the question is are they Going to kind of just continue to shift Down the pipe if you will Um to kind of push that into the second Half and that's where I am I'm in the Second half camp where I think the first Half remains strong I think the economy Again remains strong but I think the Second half is where we start to see Weakness this and then I also see that It's going to drag into 2024 so I think A lot of these economists that are Saying this are just early to the Pudge I think they're ultimately going to be Right but a lot of them will question Themselves like like listen we all do Right I've been in many many trades Where it goes against me I'm like wait a Minute was my thesis incorrect here you Know and that's just the nature of Trading and analyzing and and stuff like That so so that's where I am one of the Things that I'll point out too which has Me nervous about Bitcoin for 2024 is Everyone is saying that it's going to Start rallying into the Havoc right and That makes me very nervous that everyone Is anticipating that especially when you Have totally different scenarios where You don't have fed the FED printing

Money you don't have interest rates near Zero like they've been for the last so Long right so so there's there's like These things like You're mentioning About that when everyone's saying Something that gets me a little bit Nervous yeah for me in my channel we Don't Focus too much on the having we Just focus on the facts and the charts And what's right in front of us uh the Having is more like news events for me Personally but what I see from my side Which I think coincides from what I Heard from you Right now at this you know 25.3 K or so We've got some bearish Divergence that Has been forming for about a month each Higher high we've made our indicators Are making lower Highs at the same time Obviously bearish Divergence over a Month is nothing to play with we had Some bullish Divergence forming over About six months which is why we saw This rally form obviously six months Bearish or bullish Divergence would be a Lot stronger but what's your take on The charts indicating that we could have Already seen a bottom do you think There's any possibility that we've seen A bottom so far in Bitcoin yeah I do Think there is there's that possibility Right I mean every every good Trader Will always say okay this is my thesis And there might be a 70 to 80 percent

Chance that that's correct but remember That leaves 20 to 30 percent that you Could be wrong so there's absolutely That that thesis that that means we Could have a bottom in place you know For me it'll it's the charts again if You look back even at 2017 that you know There was this secondary dip that we saw Back down to the 3500 level before we Really took off so at least we went back To double bottom right I think it was 2000 at night early 2019 maybe when we Did that but again there's this kind of This need to go back and retrace at Least to those lows to kind of retest it Right and that's kind of at least in the Very least what I think has to happen But but for me it's like you look at the Landscape in crypto and I still can ink It might head around how many how so Many coins could still survive through This kind of flushing period right it Just doesn't you know if this is the Love then all these coins are going to Survive and everyone's going to become Zillionaires again and that's not the Way these markets work and again I can Reckon back to the the.com era and Watching what happened I mean there were So many.com companies that were junk but They got these crazy valuations but then When the flush came they actually did Get wiped out you know they got wiped Out or they got bought out for pennies

On the dollar and we hadn't really seen That in crypto yet we've seen some Bankruptcies we've seen FTX but it's not The flush out that notes for me bottoms The other thing I would say too is I Don't know how much you guys pay Attention to the sediment indicator but To me I follow Twitter very closely I Follow social media closely for that Analysis on what The Human Condition is Telling us what's the majority telling Us and I don't know if you've seen how Much bullishness has been out there but If you go back to Lowe's in almost any Market in a bear Market when you get That first 30 bouts most people are so Fearful that they don't even believe It's gonna go up that's like they're Like this can't be the bottom because This is I've been fooled too many times Because here you see people like oh this Is 100 the bottom and it just make that Makes me nervous I'm just like this Something's wrong here I hear you on that I don't know about The the sentiment on Twitter I Personally I don't use Twitter a lot for That But I get what you're saying I I read The comments a lot on our YouTube videos And that helps me understand the pulse Of the community and from what I've Gathered yeah people are getting too Bullish on this run but there's there's

Bearish Divergence that's been forming For a month there's nothing you can't Play with bearish Divergence it's only a Matter of time before we see lower Prices from where we're at now but I Think For me and let me get your take on this Gareth for me in the way I'm studying The charts My honest opinion is that the bottom Could very well be in in that the top of This next Bull Run It doesn't have a chance to to reach 100K which I know everyone's gonna be Really pissed about But that's just what I see who knows if It's right or wrong we have no idea but What do you believe about this next Bull Run whenever it's going to happen in Your opinion do you think it's going to Be something that we've seen in Cycles Past do you think that these Cycles are Weakening I don't know if you've seen my 5.3 Theory Let me give you the the 10 second Premise if you take the bottom to the Top percentage-wise in each cycle and Divide that probably 5.3 it's the exact Percentage gain of the next cycle and if You take the bottom of the next cycle to The top of the next cycle that Percentage divided by 5.3 it's the exact Percentage of the following cycle and It's been happening in bitcoin's history

Nobody's talked about it I found it kind Of by accident with some mathematical Formulas and I'm like oh my goodness and If you use that it says that the top is Going to be less than 90k which would Freak everybody out it's not a normal Cycle what's your take on that premise I Mean so so like you on the jar guy right So so the first thing I would do is I Would go to the charts and I say okay if We take the high from 2017 and we draw a Line through here we connect these last Two eye pivots that would be I mean so This so so to me that's a trend line That I would pay attention to and if we Did get up there that would probably be A shortable trading opportunity now the Question is how you know again it's hard To see where that is right now if we Went straight up to that level it's only Around 75 000 Um and that would be the case if we went You know a year out it probably isn't Above 100 yet so if we go up if we enter A new bull market I think you're on the Right track there where uh I don't know What that number would coincide with That formula but it would be interesting To see and you might be able to run this Is does this trend line let's say we hit It hit that bull market in a year does It coincide with that trend line sloping Up on the charts but I think that's That's fascinating I can see that I mean

You know as as Bitcoin gets bigger right There's gonna it's gonna be harder for It to go up right as much right so do You have the law of large numbers you Know you're not going to see apple go up 10 a day anymore what is a you know a Billion dollar company it could do that No problem you don't see that anymore Whether it's a three trillion or two Trillion dollar company so so I think That has to be taken into account and That you will start to see smaller bull Cycles but again they will be both Cycles no doubt about it let me get you Out of here on this Garrett What about the idea because this isn't I'm always looking at scenarios that are Not popular scenarios that people we all Know once the Bull Run starts people are Gonna be going it sounds like they're Going crazy already from what you've Told me It's very plausible that Bitcoin will Have trouble where we've already had a Double top we had a double top you know Around 68 call it 68 right It's very plausible that Bitcoin goes on A run and has a triple top and it could Very well go sideways for multiple Cycles similar to what the stock market Has been doing you know every 25 years It'll go sideways for a decade and that Would be the flush out that you're Looking for where almost everybody would

Go bankrupt all of these crap coins Would be gone you know it would be Devastating people would give up and it Would just be the healthiest thing That's ever happened to bitcoin what's Your take on that I so I I love that premise because That's something that I'd even said About the stock market recently that we Probably won't make new all-time highs For 10 to 15 years and again there's a Lot of a lot of proof in history that That does happen after these crazy moose Princess the nasdaq.com bubble took 15 Years for the NASDAQ to make a new high If you look at the Chinese stocks and Stock market if you look at the Brazilian stock market they still Haven't made new all-time highs since 2007-2008 and so again when when you get These meteoric Rises there's a tendency For it to need you know think about it Like this you run a marathon right and None of us are marathon runners you're Not getting up the next day and running Another Marathon you need you're gonna Need you and I are probably gonna need Like a month of rest I would be dead so Yeah and he's Hackley right so so you Have to look at it like that where you Where you have to take that time to Digest that move and I I'm in full force With that that type of action would Absolutely flush out the crap the crap

Couldn't survive without constant gains To the upside yeah and I think You're spot on with the the comparison To the.com bubble and what we saw there It's very similar right the stock market Right right now and is obviously a lot Healthier because of that if we didn't Have that it would be horrific Crypto needs it we haven't had one of These long drawn out Cycles where it Doesn't act as it did in the prior Cycles we've obviously seen a lot of Companies go bankrupt but yeah time will Tell and I would love to have you back On the show in a few months and we'll Discuss what we see happening uh Hopefully it it's it's above this 30k And we can talk about what your thoughts Are are there but you never know could Be the triple Top Cycle it could be a Long multiple cycle uh range bound where Where people start to give up but this Is crypto it's it's always exciting and A pleasure to have you uh Gareth a Verified Investingcrypto.com go check out his Website also in the money Stocks.com Gareth is a legend go follow Him on Twitter as well Gareth thank you For coming on the show do you want to Know when to buy and when to sell click This video right now

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