Are we really still in a crypto bull market, or have we all been asleep well into the bear market? Many traders are convinced that the market is still bullish, but only the data tells the full story. In this video, Ran will share the latest charts, key indicators, and market trends to reveal the truth about where crypto stands!
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โฑ ๐ง๐ถ๐บ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฎ๐บ๐ฝ๐:
00:00 Are We in a Bitcoin Bull Market or Bear Market?
03:09 Market Sentiment: Bullish vs. Bearish
06:02 Trump’s Economic Strategy: Market Manipulation and Trade Wars
09:17 Understanding Bull and Bear Markets in Cryptocurrency
12:41 Understanding Bitcoin Cycle Indicators
15:52 Understanding Bitcoin Emission and Circulation
19:15 Mastering the 21 EMA Strategy for Market Outperformance
22:42 Key Levels in the Bitcoin Bull Market
26:00 Understanding Invalidation Thesis in Investments
28:10 Blofin Sign Up & Deposit Bonus
๐ฌ ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฝ๐๐ผ ๐ฉ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ผ๐:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZk1K2_vDjw&list=PLmOv2_vzOoGd_je37xsSrQD4WVpum0UDa
๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐: Bitcoin – Crypto News – Daily Crypto Market Update – Altcoins – Crypto – Bitcoin Strategic Reserve – CPI – US Interest Rates – Trump’s Trade Wars – President Trump Tariff – Bull Market – Bear Market – Top Bear Market Indicators – EMA – Top Trading Indicator – Blofin Exchange – Kyle’s Whale School
I asked a question today on my Twitter Are we in a Bitcoin bull market or are We in a Bitcoin bare market right now The poll says 68% of people think we're In a bull market and 32% of people think We're in a bare Market the problem is The following right you cannot base Whether we're in a bull market or in a Bare Market on a poll on Twitter you Need to look at the charts the problem Is that when the charts hit or pivot From bull market to Bare Market they Don't publish any kind of notification Like when we got to this point in the Bull market over here no one said hey We're about to go into a bare market and So what Ed up happening is everyone Basically held on tight and waited for The market to turn there was always good News ahead on the horizon and so people Landed waiting waiting waiting waiting Waiting only to find out 6 months later Look Backwards and go holy [ย __ย ] we were Actually in a bare Market all along and We shouldn't have actually bought any of The tokens so I think today what we need To look at is we need to look at whether Indeed we are in a bull market or Whether indeed we're in a bare market And we need to look at the harsh truths Of what that means because the last Thing that we want is to keep thinking Because there's good news in the Horizon That there's going to be a bull market
And ultimately we're going to land up Holding and holding and holding our Tokens all the way down the ground That's what we're going to be doing Today we're going to be taking a long Hard look at the data to decide whether Indeed we are right now in a bull market Or in a bare market and how we should Actually act accordingly and uh so if That sounds good to you subscribe to the Channel 1 Point come on let's try and Get up to 1.16 million subscribers Obliterate the like button and let's get This go this show on the Road I learned a very good lesson in in 2017 and then again in 2021 and the Lesson that I learned is that the Biggest mistake that you can make in Markets and in crypto is to be bullish In a bare market and to be bearish in a Bull market right cuz the problem is That if you're bullish in a bare Market You're buying and you're buying and You're buying and you're buying and You're buying and you're buying and You've landed up buying the whole whole Whole dip and you land up waiting a long Long long time for the recovery and the Same goes for in a bull market if you're In a bull market and you're bearish you Never actually let go you never actually Buy those altcoins you never actually Spend all your cash and you land end up Losing the returns and so what I
Realized is that the only way to stop This is to actually understand whether Or not we're in a bull market and a bare Market look at what the indicators are And then decide whether right now we're In a bull market and a bare market and I Think the biggest mistake that you can Make is you is to lean on the news to Decide whether or not you're in a bull Market or a bare market and the reason Why the news is not a very good Indicator is if people want things to be Positive they will look for the positive In something and and if people want Things to be negative they will look for The negative in something the problem is That the sentiment only really shifts a Long time after the prices shift right So the problem is that right now we're All saying yes we want to be bullish we Want to be bullish and we want to be Bullish but somewhere if the if the Prices continue to go down at some point You we'll turn bearish and we'll start Looking at the bearish news and that's Just human nature right and so the idea Is to Pivot before the sentiment of the News pivots humans are naturally Optimistic By virtue of the fact that humans are Naturally optimistic they look for the Good news in everything they look for The growth in anything most humans Majority of humans there are some people
Humans that are by Nature pessimistic Those are the people that we actually Love because they show us when the Optimists are being too optimistic and So what I prefer to do is instead of or Looking at sentiment or looking at what People's hope is generally when people Look for Hope in news you can look at it From two sides I'll Give an example Right let's take the Bitcoin strategic Reserve so on the one hand you can say Wow the US is forming a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve that is huge news Right the other side of it says you Could say but the Bitcoin strategic Reserve has to be budget neutral and Budget neutral means they can never ever Spend money on bitcoin which means that Ultimately the Strategic Reserve is just A marketing Ploy for the bit for the us To hold the current bitcoin that they've Got same piece of news Good Side Bad Side those that want the market to go up They'll say well the US hasn't even Started to buy for the Bitcoin strategic Reserve and those that believe the Market will go down they'll say but hold On the the the the Strategic Reserve has To be budget neutral and therefore There's going to be no spend and so you Can swing news whichever way you want News to be swung But ultimately you got To decide whether you're in a bull Market and a bare market and that's
Really what I want to spend time doing Today so if that sounds good to you Obliterate the like button let's quickly Get through uh a few things before we go Into the the hard truth of what's going On so I want to just show you a couple Of things yesterday we got the inflation Numbers the CPI numbers couldn't have Been better right they were an absolute I mean we we beat we got 2.8% instead of The forecast 2.9% in fact if you analyze the numbers What you would have realized is that Biden's last inflation report was 5.7% Annualized Trump's first inflation Report is 2.4% annualized okay inflation Is coming down and inflation is coming Down very fast now let's look at what The markets did right This is what the markets did so this is I' I've gone back to the hourly right so You can just so you can look at the Hourly but what you can see here is the Markets went up straight after the Inflation report and then the markets Mysteriously went Down what happened what happened the Same thing happened with Bitcoin if you Go onto the hourly here here we are back On the hourly yesterday we went up and Then we went all the way down why after A great inflation report I'll tell you Why because as soon as we got a good Inflation report there was another
Tariff Announcement okay now are you guys Picking up a pattern here if Trump's Mission is to get the markets down and You get a good inflation report which is Not which is not actually in his control And he wants to get the market down Because he wants to get into recession And he wants to convince pile to to to Reduce interest rates what do you do if You're Trump what do you do you get a Good inflation report you announce Something to crash markets which is Exactly what happened which is why today Hear me out here which is why today I Got a a a I saw this on on Truth social Look at the time here right so this is 2 P p.m. South African we got the European Union one of the most hostile and Abusive taxing and tariffing authorities In the world which was formed for the Sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States has put a nasty 50% tariff On Whiskey if this tariff is not removed Immediately the US will shortly place a 200% tariff on all Wines okay now that was at 2:00 South African time and at 2:30 o00 230 African Time we got a PPI which was better than Expected coincidence I don't know so Much I think that there's an agenda in Washington that says under no Circumstances can you let the markets go Up we need cool markets if there's good
Data come up with a bad headline because Right now Trump is on a mission and his Mission is to get the markets down and He cannot let the markets go up because Otherwise the problem is that Pal's not Going toed reduce interest rates and so Right now I'm watching this and I'm Going hold on a second here every time That there's good news that comes out of The market it there is a when the Markets get too hot when the market gets Hopeful Trump always does something and Right now the thing that that he does is Pretty much around trade Wars and Tariffs and whatever else and maybe the Narrative will change but I think you Need to be you need to see exactly What's going on here anyway that is what I think's going on now let's talk about The big question of the day the reason Why you guys came here question I mean Just tell me in the chat here and maybe You can run a poll are we in a bull Market or are we in a bare market and The problem is that you have to decide And the reason why you have to decide Whether we're in a bull market or in a Bare Market is as I said before there's No announcement at the top of a bull Market and if you think we're in a bull Market if you're bullish in a bare Market you land up buying the dip buying The dip buying the dip buying the dip And when you get here you go holy [ย __ย ]
What have I done I've literally bought The I've literally bought the whole way Down when I should have been when I Should have exited the market right so The question that needs to be answered Is are we in a bull market or in the Bare Market question are we here on this Chart or are we here on this chart is This a is this recent dip in the in in The market is this dip which is a 30% Dip is this a healthy bull market Correction like all the other bull Market Corrections that we've had 35% 37% 25% or is this the beginning of a Bare market and you know you know you Know how we Define a bare Market when Everybody is waiting for the last leg up Right when everybody's waiting for one More leg up and the leg up never comes Up and never goes higher or not never But in doesn't go up higher higher than This thing over here then we're Ultimately got conned and we're pretty Much in a in in a bare market and that's Why I think it's so important to really Really really understand whether this is A correction or whether this is a little Dip before the final search the one last Leg up that everybody wants to exit on And that's pretty much what what I think We need what I think we need to discuss And I think just to to to clarify what We mean by bull market and bare market So so we're all on the same page a bull
Market is defined as a period where we Expect prices to increase And a bare Market is defined as a period Where we can expect markets to decrease And the reason why why I've pointed that Out is let's talk about bull market as Up trajectory and bare Market as down Trajectory okay so let's just um bull Market bare market up trajectory and Down trajectory okay and then you'll Realize that there's the word period now The reason why I said that is the word Period because it's all about what time Frame you're looking at and the reason Why I said that is because If you look at Bitcoin ever since its Inception you can pretty much say that Bitcoin's been on a 10-year bull market Right problem is that in that 10-year Bull market when you go to a different Time period like in this period Between um November 21 and December 22 No one can say that Bitcoin was in a Bull market in a short-term bull market In that period And so it's very Important that we Define the time Periods under which we're looking right Because you can have a a bull market for 1 hour and then you can have a bare Market for another hour you can have a One we bull market you can have a one Month bull market but ultimately I think Today for the purpose of discussion Let's define the bull market as the the
Bull market that started in November December 20122 so this is we can Define This as the bottom let's define this Period here as as the bottom and then I Think we can kind of conclude that from Here at 14,000 to here at 82,000 or even 100,000 we were 100,000 we were pretty Much in a bull market okay now the big Question is are we still in a bull Market or is this this pattern as you Can see here playing out again and now Going back into a bare market now Whether or not we're in a bull market or A bare market now no doubt that as long As Bitcoin keeps the total upward Trend Which is which can be defined as as Sending along uh as sending along these Lines over here so as long as Bitcoin Keeps this total upward Trend and we Keep putting in higher lows then I'd say That Bitcoin is still in a bull market But in the shorter term maybe we're not In a bull market maybe we're going into A bare market so let's define I think so In order to understand that so you Understand that that bull markets and Bare markets are completely completely Completely time dependent and that you Can always zoom out and find a a bull Market or zoom in or zoom out and find a Bull market somewhere but I think the Bull market that we're talking about Universally the language that we're Talking today is is this bull market
Which started at $115,000 on November 20 2022 over or is this or is this just and Is this just or is this just a Correction in a bull market that is that Is the big question okay so I think in Order to do that what we need to do is Just agree on a few things the first Thing is certain certainly when Cycles STP there are certain indicators that Show you that Cycles have topped right And I'm sure that if you look for cycle For for indicators You'll Always Find Some kind of indicator so if we go to There's a there's this this this Indicator called um uh this is the what Is it bti indicator so if you look at The bti indicator this is a combination Of all the top indicators and you can See that generally it feels like this Always tops and let me try make this a Bit smaller okay you can see that Generally when when we look at this this Bti indicator kind of shows you when the When it gets red and when we top and and If this cycle is similar to all the Other Cycles well then you can kind of Say look we haven't actually hit any of The metrics that Define the top of a Cycle if you look at YouTube views we we Never got the spike in YouTube views if You look at the BTC Pi cycle top which Is another indicator we never broke over Both lines and so probably haven't Peaked when it comes to that right if
You look at the Historical risk levels You can see that Bitcoin didn't or the Historical risk levels didn't break Above and so the top indicators the Traditional top indicators on the cycle Didn't act Happened however there were a whole lot Of indicators that did happen I mean Like the top of the last cycle where we Had an NFD craze this time we had a meme Coin craze I mean if you want like a Real top indicator guys the president Launched a [ย __ย ] meme coin okay like If that's not an indicator of froth in The market if that's not the ultimate Celeb endorsement of a coin well I don't Know what is okay so let's say that Potentially the cycle hasn't topped Because we haven't got the top Indicators however maybe we are going Into a scenario like 2021 where we went Into we in a bull market we went to here We then went through a if I remember Correctly it was a couple of weeks or a Couple of months we went to we went to Went through a bull market a bare Market Of four months and then we started we we Resumed the bull market right so now the Question is how do you know whether We're in a bull market or a bare market And the bad news is that unfortunately There isn't one single reliable Indicator as to what is in a bull market And what is a bare Market there are many
Indicators that people look at and I Think we need to go through all those Different indicators so let's look at Some of the basic ones the first one is You can look at the Haring cycle and you Can say look based on this Haring cycle And this chart that everybody's seen From the Haring to the peak and the Number of days it if we continue on the Fouryear Cycles which are the harving Cycles then we should top in Peak October 2 Correct the only thing is that the Haring cycle has kind of lost relevance And the reason why the Haring cycle is Lost relevance is because when Bitcoin Was emitting 50 Bitcoin every block that Was significant problem is that now Bitcoin is emitting 3.125 Bitcoin every Single block and relative to the supply The total Supply that exists in the Market already remember in the old days Bitcoin was emitting 50 Bitcoin divided By say a million Bitcoin which were in Circulation today Bitcoin is emitting 3.125 Bitcoin every block and that is Divided by 19.5 million Bitcoin which Are already in circulation so there's a Big argument to say that the harving Cycle kind of becomes irrelevant now Then we go into another indicator and The another indicator is what they call The bull market support band this is the Bull market support band you can get it
On on on trading view on The Daily which Means on the short time frame we've We've broken down below the bull market Support band on the weekly we've also Broken down below the bull market Support band right so again we've broken Down below the bull market support band Does this mean that the bull Market's Actually over well in the past if we Have after this up surge broken down Broken sharply below the bull market Support band we had one recovery here we Broke sharply again we went down again In 2017 once we broke below the bull Market support band that was the end of The bull Market okay the problem is that in this Cycle we broke down below the bull Market support band and we somehow Recovered above the bull market support Band and now we're breaking down sharply The word sharply is a very important Word here sharply below the bull market Support band so what you'll notice here Is that if you do break below the bull Market support band but it's not a sharp Break of the bull market support band Typically the bull market can continue However historically if we've broken Down sharply below the bull market Support band in this case we got a Double top or a slightly higher high but In every other case if we break sharply Below the bull market support band it's
Not really a good sign and we've broken Sharply below the bull market support Band then there's another one that People look at right and again I'm Looking at it on the weekly just to give Us slightly bigger time frame you can Look at on The Daily on The Daily we Actually broke below the bull market Support band a long time ago Next is the 50 we um 50 we uh SMA simple Moving average and what this shows is it Basically shows that if we break through The 50 we SMA we typically head towards The 200 we SMA which basically means That when we break below this 50 we SMA We we generally go into a bare market Now we are currently exactly on the 50 We smaa right we haven't broken down on The on the 50 SMA but if we do then like Happened in 202 in 20177 and like Happened in 2021 that symbolized the end Of the bull market right once here and One here and here we're touching it Important to note that here the 50 we SMA uh we touched we broke under we we We we candle we we Wicked under it and Then we continued back on the uptrend so Again if you look at this indicator it Kind of says look we're actually on the Cusp right now if we break below it then Actually we are in the bare Market let's Look at another one and this is the one That I think is one of the best ones and To be honest I wish I could tell you
That it was my work but it's actually Not my work it's uh the work of the Dupes the Kyle dupster and I want you to Listen to what he says the first Strategy that we're going to go over is One of my absolute favorite it's the 21 Weekly EMA strategy and believe it or Not if you followed this since the Beginning it would have outperformed the Market by 14.8 times this is essentially How it works all that you need to do is Put on your 21 weekly EMA anytime that The exponential moving averages angled Upwards and price is holding above that Level you want to be entered into the Market anytime that the price action Candles fall below the exponential Moving average and specifically the Exponential moving averages angled Downwards you want to be exited out of Those Positions okay so that's that's dupies That's what dupy says now let's look at The 200 the the two the 21 EMA so if you Look at the 21 EMA and again we looking At the weekly you can see that number One we have broken down below the the The the 21 EMA as we did over here and As we did over here right and and as we Did over here we've broken down Sharply below the 21 EMA and as Kyle Says the 21 EMA is also moving downwards Right so you can see it you can see it Over here so those two boxes have ticked
That potentially this is the end of the Bull market but however again every now And then like over here we had an Anomaly we went down below the 21 thing But we recovered we recovered and I Think the same thing also happened here We went down below and we actually Recovered but generally what you can see Is if you break below the EMA 21 it's Generally not a good thing on the weekly Right so it's it's generally not a a a Good thing on the weekly now I say this Again to you guys and I think we have Said this bull market and 32% of people Think Kyle is running school I say this This is one of the best indicators that I've gotten he really really really goes Into it on the school it's again the Last free school that ky's doing the Next one's going to cost $2,000 you can Sign up to Kyle's school there's 18 days Left to get signed up and and and Approved but trust me do this course Because dupes actually spends a lot of Time going through this and this is the Last chance the next one's again going To be $2,000 Let's go back to it so the 21 EMA says That potentially we are actually in a Bare Market why sharp break of a 21 EMA Um and a downward sloping uh EMA note How as soon as we break above the 21 EMA Generally signals the beginning of the Bull market it happened here it happened
Over here and it happened over here Right as soon as we broke above a 21 EMA That signaled the beginning of the bull Market to me this has been the most Reliable indicator and if you trade just Based on the 21 EMA you'll outperform The market historically you would have Outperformed the market by 14 times all You do is you go to you go to the Trading view you put in your EMA you put In the 21 EMA and you look at it on the Weekly right so that is that is the the The other indicator that says that Potentially we're in a bare Market okay So now we've got a whole lot of Indicators are kind of saying to you That look we're either in a bare Market Or on the verge of a bare Market Now there's the non-scientific more Emotional one where I said the following Where I say look there are a couple of Indicators here which I want to which For me will invalidate this bull market The most important indicator for me Which would invalidate this bull market Is if we go down to this level over here Which is kind of towards the previous High of the range of the previous Administration and also coincidentally The top of the 2021 cycle so it's it Seems like it's the ultimate ultimate Ultimate key level why it's the top of The of the 2021 cycle and it's also kind Of near the top of the of the old
Administration the crypto prices before The old Administration and the idea here Is to say look in our in my opinion We've we had a bit of a blow of top now The question is whether we're going to Bounce off here or basically go up if we Do land up boun ing off here the Correction will be about a 35% Correction and we'll touch the high of The previous cycle and we'll still put In a higher high and will continue on This uptrend and the reason why I say That is because here it becomes a Technical and a fundamental indicator The tech the technical indicator says This is amazing support like if it's It's the previous Cycles high it's the It's the top R the top of the range um Of the of the of the chop of the Previous administration and it is a 35% Correction more or less so it go it Comes down to about a 36 or 37% Correction if we don't bounce off that Level and we go below that level then I Think you got to kind of say to yourself Okay hold on a second no matter what Good news seems to be on the horizon That must be declared as pretty much the End of this crypto or or specifically The end of this bull market now again I'm only talking about Bitcoin I'm not Talking about cuz the truth is that I Actually think that altcoins are in a Bare Market I think that altcoins have
Been in a bare market for a long time But for the purposes of today let's Actually just talk about Bitcoin and say Look we can't we can't just blindly Believe that the cycle is going to Continue to go up because if you do You're going to land up buying the dip All the way down until eventually land Up buying the dip all the way down to $50,000 or or or wherever we land up There are a few indicators that are Showing us the bull market support band Is broken the the this traditional Harving cycle which is probably less Relevant showing us that it's not the End of the cycle the 50 SMA is exactly Right now on the 50 SMA and so it's it's At a decision point and if you look at The e at the EMA 21 it shows all the Characteristics of a breakdown in the Bull market and so ultimately we've got To be ready for the realization that This specific bull market may be over May may may be over so the question is What do you do well I think the only Real answer here is number one face Reality that it it is is a proposition And if indeed you are facing reality and It is indeed a proposition you want to Be holding assets that you can hold Because you think that Multicycle these assets are going to Continue in a long-term Bull Run despite The short-term cycles and I think
There's probably five or six assets that Can do it you can decide what your Assets are mine are obviously Bitcoin Maybe salana maybe a couple of others But there's not many that I'd be holding On a Multicycle uh bull market and so that's Exactly what what what you need to do You need to set yourself an invalidation Thesis because if you don't have an Invalidation thesis you're constantly Going to scream bull bull bull and I and I only know this because I did this I I Screamed it was more this one here where The whole way down here it was the whole Way down let me go back to that to to The Chart here literally the whole way Down I I was screaming bullish bullish Bullish bullish Bullish and then I mean I landed up Averaging all the way down and I'm Landed up up on my investment but UL Ultimately it's not it's not a good look And I would have much rather preferred To have adopted a more scientific Approach like the EMA 21 approach which Says Hey we've broken down I'm selling And I'm going to buy again when we Actually break up and I'm okay with it Because if I would have sold here and Then bought back here I'm okay with it And so to me the most reliable indicator That I found is this EMA 21 But Ultimately you need to have your own
Indicator and you need to decide when Your invalidation is going to be and Also you need to be holding assets which You think are going to survive Multicycle Bitcoin salana maybe eth Maybe suie maybe hyper liquid when all These troubles pass in fact I think it's A great time to be buying hyper liquid Um now that everybody's scared of it so That is what you guys need to do um yeah And yeah what What did the what did the Paul say what did the Paul Say that's the problem when a lot of People still think we're in a bull Market they're buying buying buying buy And buying instead of selling and then They land up holding the back I'm not Saying we're in a bull market or in a Bare Market I'm just saying you should Consider both options you should Consider the probability which by the Way I think is about 25 to 40% that we Are actually in a bare market for now uh And yeah I mean that that's pretty much What you need to be doing let me know What you think also um also um someone Says this channel is wishiwashi it's not Wishiwashi it's just looking at the data And what the data is telling us is that We got to be open to the possibility Because if we just go yeah bro buy the Dip yeah bro buy the dip yeah bro buy The dip at $50,000 you would have bought All the dips and you would have been
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