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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGaTzPS6fTY&list=PLmOv2_vzOoGfTIAPcvjt3jN3rlNri-XMi

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The eighth Shanghai upgrade is coming Which means 18 million ethereum could Potentially be dumped onto the market is This new supply pressure going to cause A massive ethereum dump or is it simply Something not to worry about in today's Show I'm going to be breaking down the Maths behind the Shanghai upgrade to try And evaluate its impact on the market as Well as explaining what it could Potentially mean for liquid staking Derivatives which is a narrative being Driven entirely off the back of each Shanghai right now crypto is facing a Lot of headwinds you have the mount gox Bitcoin unlock which is slated to Commence on March 10th you have the Silvergate bank on the verge of collapse You have the Shanghai eth unlock which We're going to be talking about in Today's video are happening very soon You have hot CPI data which is resulting In the market now pricing in the Possibility of a 50 basis point rate Hike so there's macro pressures on the Market you also have some of the Asian Buy pressure turning into cell pressure Over recent weeks with Asian open are Being quite a bearish event and you've Also seen Mass Liquidations in the midst Of just general stock market weakness so In general there's a lot of headwinds For crypto but one by one we need to Pick apart these headwinds and actually

Evaluate whether it's simply hot air Something people are just panicking About because it gives them an excuse to Be bearish or whether there is actually Legitimacy behind some of these claims And of course today we're going to be Going over the Shanghai eth unlock and Working out if there's legitimacy there Kobe did a tweet on August 27th where he Said they're going to release the malcox Bitcoin the same week as they unlock the Post merge staked eth they just want to Maximize chaos 6 to 12 months away Probably gonna be funny don't trust Anyone and this prediction actually came True because yesterday he did a Follow-up tweet um which showed that the East Shanghai upgrade is actually going To be happening during the same month as The malcolx creditors are going to start Receiving some of their Bitcoin so I Think having these two events in tandem With each other has been the driver of Major uncertainty in this market but of Course with Mount gox being prolonged And the 8th Shanghai upgrade happening Are over the course of just a few days It is pertinent at the moment to discuss The effects of specifically the eth Shanghai upgrade and I think the first Thing I want to explain about the eth Shanghai upgrade in general is exactly What it is and how it fits into Ethereum's roadmap as you can see here

Vitalik posted an updated ethereum Roadmap which outlines the steps that Ethereum is taking to go from what is Currently a semi-broken network to a Fully functional scalable L1 blockchain Ecosystem which can support thousands of Dapps and millions of transactions at Fast speeds because we all know Ethereum's problems it gets very Congested it's extremely slow the Network has extremely high gas fees and In order to fix ethereum because they're Kind of launched with a broken product And they're fixing it over time they Need to conduct a series of steps which Essentially is going to lead ethereum to Its final point now we had the merge Which was the very first upgrade on the Network which was crucial to putting it On the path of improvement but the next Upgrade is the Surge and this is the Upgrade that is going to give ethereum The potential of hitting 100 000 Transactions per second but in order to Make the surge possible there is a very Important EIP 4844 upgrade aka the Shanghai upgrade Which needs to take place to enable State eth to be redeemed on the beacon Chain and of course this is the major Driving force behind not only the Potential eth that's going to hit the Market but also an entire new liquid Staking narrative which is thriving off

The back of Shanghai so what is the Shanghai upgrade essentially what it is Is it is an upgrade which will enable Eat stakers and validators to withdraw Ethereum from the beacon chain so Previously when you staked ethereum on To the beacon chain there was no Redemption mechanism for you to actually Get your ethereum back so if you had 32 East and you started a validator there's No way to get that ethereum out of that Validator you were essentially locked in A position ever since you staked so the Beacon chain withdrawal mechanism will Mean that now any ethereum that was Staked in the chain is now able to be Redeemed so you can actually get your Ethereum back now of course there's been Many workarounds in the meantime like Liquid staking which gives you a Derivative but it's not the same Validators weren't able to take their Ethereum out and that is one of the sole Things that Shanghai aims to fix amongst A whole host of other upgrades which Will make the network slightly faster And improve each staking system so when Is the East Shanghai upgrade well it was Slated to be going live in the last week Of March however ethereum developers Have just pushed back the Shanghai Upgrade to early April so the core Developers set a date for the girly test Net deployment of March 14th but the

Mainnet will now have to wait until April so the girly test net deployment Is them testing out the code on the test Net but the actual mainnet deployment Which will see the Shanghai upgrade go Live on the beacon chain is going going To now have to wait no firm date for the Eventual mainnet hard Fork has been set Yet but the downstream effects to the Agreed timeline are likely to bump Shanghai's final deployment to about a Month afterwards developers said this Means investors with staked ether will Have to wait a little bit longer to Withdraw and this obviously kicks the Can down the road a couple weeks in Terms of the ethereum that is Potentially about to hit the market let Me explain how it could actually affect Prices but before I get into the Potential price impact on the market I Want to remind you that okx is running a Mystery box promotion right now which Means if you sign up for an okx account Using the link in the description and Deposit 50 into your account you can Open a mystery box up to ten thousand Dollars worth of rewards you may get Five dollars ten dollars a hundred Dollars but there is a maximum price of Ten thousand dollars so sign up using The link in the description get yourself An okx account it's not only a great Exchange to trade on but it could also

Potentially be fruitful getting your Hands on one of these mystery boxes it's Very simple to sign up just in two steps Now back to the ethereum calculations David Alexander did a fantastic thread Outlining the potential impact on eth Staking he says as withdrawals on staked Eth now have a tentative release date Which we know is around April this has Led to increased staking activity the Highest monthly volume since last April However this upgrade has also many Applications for staking providers one Key implication is that the overwhelming Majority of deposits occurred ahead of The FTX collapse over 14.7 million of The total 15.8 million staked eth was Deposited before November 2022 so most Deposits occurred when eath was trading Between 1500 and 3500 and even above 4 000. this is a very important point in Order to evaluate the impact on the Market noting that the majority of People actually deposited at higher Prices this makes it very different from Mount gox when people had Bitcoin in Docks at much lower prices like a Thousand Bitcoin because you're much Less likely to take profits on a locked Token that you're down on versus a token That you're significantly up on like the Gox Bitcoin providers so this is one of The major distinctions I want to make Between Mount gox and ethereum in fact

The two largest monthly deposits year to Date occurred in March 1.3 million Ethereum and 1.1 million ethereum in April when eth was regularly trading at Three thousand dollars so the biggest Ethereum deposits into validators Happens during the period when eth was Priced around three thousand dollars so With liquidity at a premium and a Variety of funds institutions and Retail Investors unable to recruit their locked Capital David sent and I share this Sense as well is that there will be a Considerable amount of withdrawal Activity once it goes live perhaps just As importantly there is competition Between professional staking services Not all services offer the same apy Rewards and each provider has a Different commission rate this will have Effects on the LSD Market which I'll get Into at the end of the video and finally As he alludes to will be hunting staked Ethereum derivatives and that's also Something I want to talk about at the End of the show how it will affect the LSD Market but off the back of the data That he's providing in terms of staked Eth what does this potentially mean for The eth price what will the effect mean In practice I have two resources which Are going to help unpack this one is a Great thread by copy which involves Financial modeling and the second one is

Crypto quants analysis which comes to a Verdict and then I'll give you my Opinion so in Corpus thread he broke Down stakers into segments to understand Their ability and willingness to sell And analyze different scenarios now this Is quite maths intensive but by the end I think you'll have a much better idea As to how the ethereum Shanghai upgrade Is actually going to affect the market Quick reminder withdrawals can be Partial or full this means that you can Either choose to withdraw some of your Ethereum when you withdraw or withdraw All of your ethereum when you choose to Withdraw how much ethereum will be Withdrawn if Shanghai happened today 1.059360 Pro million eth would be processed and It would take around four to five days To finalize processing but Shanghai will Likely happen in April which gives us 1.19 million ethereum in partial Withdrawals only but what about full Withdrawals most likely there will be Many full withdrawals at the beginning Even if only 10 of all the validators Decided to exit it will take 31 days to Clear the execute this won't happen Overnight it is going to take some time Assuming 1 800 full withdrawals per day 57.6 000 ethereum will be unlocked daily for A month and you can see the plotting

Here of the eth validator exit over time So to wrap up that data 1.1 million eth Will be withdrawn through partial Withdrawals 38 000 8th will be through Full withdrawals for already exited Validators and 1.7 million each for full Withdrawals if 10 of total validators Will exit this is just a rough number But I think it's a logical number to Assume that 10 of total validators will Exit so this equals total of 2.8 million Ethereum and this is how it would look Plotted day by day in terms of the Withdrawals we can see major withdrawals Happening in that first five days and Then it is a linear progression for the First month after Shanghai until all of The withdrawals are processed so how Will this affect the market in terms of Price well copy suggests that according To this data 436 000 to 2.9 Million eth will potentially Be sold which is a wide range but it Represents three scenarios the mild Selling case medium selling case and the Aggressive selling case so we need to Plot in three potential scenarios and Evaluate how all three of those Scenarios could potentially affect the Price copy outlines these three Scenarios as mild meaning 14 000 eth a Day is sold over a month average which Means 23 000 ether day is sold over two Months and aggressive means 32 000

Ethereum is sold per day over three Months as we can see here the maths Plotted into the total selling pressure Which varies from mild to aggressive so Let's get contextualize this 14 000 Eighth a day according to corby's mild Scenario is comparable to the Daily Issuance to miners before the transition To proof of stake so he's saying the Amount of ethereum going onto the market In the mild scenario is essentially what We were already getting when ethereum Was proof of work so that means the mild Scenario is probably a non-event the Average scenario would be three times The amount of the issuance that was Happening from the miners during the Proof of work days and aggressive means That it's four times the amount of Issuance during the proof of work days Would this have an impact on the market Yes I mean you have to think about it This way this is ethereum that was Previously staked that is now going to Act as supply pressure that wasn't Previously there is it going to have a Negative effect on price from a selling Perspective absolutely it will because It's ethereum that wasn't there before That is now available to be sold however Will it have a crazy price impact that Could result in a massive dump well There's two reasons why this might not Be the case one a lot of the cell

Pressure especially in the mild and Average scenarios would be absorbed by The Market the aggressive scenario which Has a slightly lesser probability of Occurring would impact the market more And we definitely would see some sort of Correction in that case however it's not Clear-cut because the market is likely To be pricing in a lot of this increased Supply beforehand so the Market's not Stupid it knows this data and it prices It in accordingly and with the market Quite fearful right now around Shanghai Around Mount Cox around the macro around Regulatory headwinds and silvergate There are many reasons for the market to Be scared and that may mean that it is Priced in fully ahead of time so even When this Supply starts hitting the Market it's kind of anticipated and There's almost like a sigh of relief by The rumor sell the news event when the Ethereum is actually released the people Like shanghai's over we can start buying Against that's one of the scenarios that Could take place crypto Quant says the Selling pressure will actually remain Low even after the upgrade So currently 60 of staked ethers at a loss Representing 10.3 million each typically Selling pressure arises when Participants have extreme profit which Is not the case for stake teeth Currently so this follows on from the

Point I was making earlier that a lot of People are in a loss because they staked Higher and psychologically uh they have A lesser chance of selling than if they Bought a lot cheaper like the people do With Bitcoin during mouth docks so That's maybe another reason why this Cell pressure won't be as crazy and Could allude to a more mild to average Scenario in line with what corby's Predictions were here so my overall tldr And summary on how it will impact the Market in terms of the East price is I Think it's going to end up being Relatively minimal now of course we Could see some impact of course we could See some correction but I don't think a Correction would be solely off the back Of cell pressure I think it's more Likely you see a pre-event panic maybe a Pre-event dump or sell-off pretty much Like we're seeing at the moment in Anticipation of this event but I do Think aside from the ethereum token Itself it does have significant Ramifications for the LSD liquid staking Derivatives narrative actually in a more Bullish sense because what is going to Happen a lot of ethereum is now going to Be on mistaked that was previously Locked in validators and those people That are unstaking ethereum are now Going to have the option of restaking in A liquid staking protocol which has

Capital efficiency benefits overstaking In a validator so if you have 32 Ethernet validator you might decide well Why don't I unstake this 32eath and put It into lighter or rocket pool get my Yield on my ethereum but then also get a Staked eth token derivative in return For it that I can then LP and earn Yields on elsewhere or put up and borrow As collateral elsewhere and like still Be able to interact with D5 with that Staked ethereum and that is an enticing Proposition for a lot of stakers which Could mean we see increased inflows into The liquid staking market and that is Why I think the Shanghai upgrade is Inherently bullish for protocols like Frax protocols like Lido rocket pool and Anchor and this is a narrative that I'm Looking at positioning myself in and I've been talking about this for the Past couple months but is one of the Stronger narratives potentially over the Next month or two especially leading Into Shanghai of course you could see a Buy the room all the news event but the Event is still over a month away so I Still think there is time for these Tokens to run now no they probably won't Run in isolation Um so if Bitcoin keeps dumping of Ethereum dumps they're going to struggle To perform but in terms of pure relative Strength trades I personally would

Rather be more geared toward lsds than Some of the other altcoin rotation Narratives right now because I believe That is where the relative strength is And will continue to be now Lewis Cooper Did a good thread on liquid staking Derivatives and talked about some of his Top ones and I highly recommend looking Through his thread if you want to learn More about the LSD narrative but right Now only 35 of the total Eve staking Market is comprised of liquid staking And I only expect this to increase post Shanghai and the funny thing is only 14 Of the total eth is staked at all I Think this might be closer to 20 at the Time of this video but that is still not A crazy amount that is staked in the Scheme of the total ethereum supplier so When you think about it now that the Beacon chain withdrawals are a enabled And the Shanghai upgrade is live people Are going to be more incentivized to Stake ethereum because they know that They can redeem their ethereum even in Lighter right now if you stake Lido Can't withdraw that Heath that you stake It is still locked so you might get Staked Ethan return but you can't Actually put that back into Lido and get Your eth back yet once that Redemption Is enabled I believe a lot more people Are now going to feel comfortable Staking in liquid staking protocols so

You have that double pronged effect of People pulling money out of validators To put into liquid staking because of The capital efficiency benefits and then You have the other effect of new people That are sidelined that feel more Comfortable staking ethereum after the Shanghai upgrade and they're going to Pick the best places to stake and where Are the best places to stake well Liquids taking derivatives and I will Link a link in the description to a more In-depth video I did on these Derivatives but essentially the tldr is I'm interested in frax lighter rocker Pool and lastly anchor and I think my Bullishness is roughly in order of the List that I just mentioned them in if You want to trade any of these coins you Can do so on a decks like kyber swap Which is a DEX aggregator meaning it's Going to find you the best rates across The crypto market so let's say you want To swap Ethan to Lido it's automatically Going to determine that uni swap V2 is The best place to get the most optimal Buy price for you and it's going to Aggregate through uni swap to give you The best rates and save you money Cyberswap since it Aggregates is Basically a One-Stop shop for trading on A decks so if you were going to trade Any of these tokens especially spot Trade any of these tokens on a DEX then

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